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How to pick a winner: Cup favourite must overcome 128-year curse
For many Australians, the first Tuesday in November is the only time each year they will bet on a horse race.
The Lexus Melbourne Cup is known as the race that stops a nation for a reason – it attracts eyeballs like none other.
Melbourne Cup time has arrived. Getty
For the casual punter, there are many ways to figure out which runner takes your fancy.
Be it the colour of the silks, a lucky number, the rider on board, or simply a hunch, every Aussie dreams of picking a winner on Cup day.
Here is some information to help you make an educated guess.
For a more serious, in-depth look at each runner in this year’s great race, check out our expert form guides by Simon O’Donnell, Francesca Cumani, or David Gatley.
Odds courtesy of TAB. Correct as of 2pm Monday.
The name
Since 1924 only 11 horses whose name starts with a vowel have won the Melbourne Cup.
Only one winner has ever started with the letter O, while names starting with I, Q, U, X and Y have never won the race.
With that in mind, the likes of Enfjaar ($27), Asterix ($61), and Onesmoothoperator ($61) can be ruled out of this year’s edition.
The most common winners start with a P or an S.
It means you want to be getting on Sons And Lovers ($19), Soul Of Spain ($34), So You Are ($12), Strictly Business ($67), Point Of Law ($7), and Shockletz ($10) on Tuesday.
The barrier and saddlecloth number
The barrier draw plays a big role in every horse race, and in many cases can make or break a runner’s chances of winning.
It is pure luck - all 24 names get put into a barrel on Saturday night, and they are drawn at random, and assigned a barrier to jump from.
If there are scratchings before the race, that horse is withdrawn and any runners in barriers outside that are simply shifted inwards.
The winningest gate since 1958 - when merchandised stalls were introduced to the race - is 11, which has produced seven winners in that time. The last was Americain in 2010, and this year Zahrann ($31) has drawn the lucky barrier.
Barrier 5 has produced five winners since 1958, and Soul Of Spain ($31) will jump from it on Tuesday, while barriers 2 (Knight’s Choice), 13 (Onesmoothoperator), 14 (Juja Kibo), and 21 (Royal Supremacy) have all produced four winners since 1958.
The gates you don’t want to jump from are 7 (So You are), 12 (Future History), 19 (Goodie Two Shoes), and 23 (Wine Dark Sea), which have produced just one winner each since 1958.
The saddlecloth number is dictated by the order of the field and the weight each horse will carry. The top weight - the horse slugged with the biggest handicap - will wear saddlecloth 1 and, in the Melbourne Cup, the No.24 horse will carry the lowest handicap.
While the handicapper’s job is to make the field as even as possible, saddlecloth No.1 is the winningest one of the last 100 years of the Melbourne Cup.
Saddlecloth 1 has claimed nine wins in the last century, closely followed by 5, 6, and 12, which have all won it eight times.
Sons And Lovers ($19) will wear saddlecloth 1 in this year’s race, while Vauban ($51), Enfjaar ($26), and Hopewell Rock ($10) will wear the other three most successful numbers.
Vauban. Getty
On the other end of the scale, saddlecloth 20 has never been worn to victory in the last 100 years of the Melbourne Cup. According to Racing Victoria’s Malcolm McLaren, the last horse to wear No.20 to victory was Gaulus in 1898.
Intriguingly, race favourite Point Of Law ($7) will wear the cursed No.20 on Tuesday. He will therefore have to buck 128 years of history to win the race.
Cloth numbers 18 (James J Braddock, $21) and 21 (Strictly Business, $67) have only won the great race once in the last 100 years.
The jockey
Two jockeys in history managed to win the Melbourne Cup four times - Bobbie Lewis (1902, 1915, 1919, 1927) and Harry White (1974, 1975, 1978, 1979).
That record won’t be broken, or even matched, this year.
Of the 2026 crop, only Mark Zahra (Middle Earth) can boast multiple Melbourne Cup wins, having taken the chocolates in 2022 (Gold Trip) and 2023 (Without A Fight).
Mark Zahra kisses the 2023 Melbourne Cup trophy. nna\lachlan.harper
Of his 2026 rivals, Jamie Melham, James McDonald, Robbie Dolan, Craig Williams, and Jye McNeil have won the Cup previously.
Melham last year became the second female jockey to win the great race, steering Half Yours to victory exactly a decade after Michelle Payne broke the glass ceiling with her famous Prince Of Penzance win.
Melham, sitting aboard Future History on Tuesday, can become the first woman to win it twice. Rachel King (So You Are) is the only other female jockey in the race this year.
As for international hoops, Dylan Browne McMonagle has been flown over to ride top weight Sons And Lovers for Joseph O’Brien, Ray Dawson is here to ride Enfjaar, Wayne Lordan is aboard Goodie Two Shoes.
The horse’s gender and age
Male horses have dominated the Melbourne Cup, winning more than 90 cent of the races to date.
The most successful Cup horses have been entires - a male who has not been castrated. They’ve collected 72 victories.
Geldings - a male horse who has been castrated - have banked 57 wins.
Of the females, mares have won the Cup 14 times and fillies - younger females - are traditionally not favoured in the gruelling affair, winning just three times.
There are only three female horses in this year’s race – Goodie Two Shoes, Strictly Business and Shockletz.
The weight
In terms of age, four and five-year-old runners have found the most success in the Melbourne Cup, winning 47 times each to make up 92 of the 165 to date.
In this year’s race that means Sons And Lovers, Royal Supremacy, Wine Dark Sea, Juja Kibo, Hopewell Rock, Soul Of Spain, Zahrann, So You Are, Kizlyar, Strictly Business, Mr Monaco and Shozkletz have the best chance.
So You Are. Getty Images
Six-year-old horses also have a decent record in the Cup, while three-year-olds used to enjoy success but have not claimed the race since 1941.
There are a couple of three-year-old horses in the 2026 field, both from overseas – Point Of Law and James J Braddock, both from the Joseph O’Brien stable.
Seven-year-olds have only won the race 12 times.
For the eight-year-olds in the race, Vauban and Onesmoothoperator, they will need to defy plenty of history with just three previous winners of that age.
The colour
Blue has been the most successful silks colour in Melbourne Cup history, yielding 40 winners including last year’s victor Half Yours.
Middle Earth, Vauban, Royal Supremacy, Juja Kibo, Onesmoothoperator, Soul Of Spain, Hopewell Rock, Zahrann, James J Braddock, Point Of Law and Strictly Business will all wear predominantly blue colours in the 2026 race.
Just ask the experts
When it doubt, it’s never a bad idea to follow the actual experts. Check out a few of our form guides below from some astute racing minds.
