Expert swayed by ‘epic form’ and J-Mac for Melbourne Cup tip

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It’s the race that stops the nation and this year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup promises to be a thrilling and intriguing contest between some of the world’s best stayers.

In a 24-horse field mixed with international raiders and local hopes, the $10 million Flemington feature will have the eyes of the world on it.

There’s a clear favourite in the race in Point Of Law, who won the Geelong Cup in his Australian debut last month and drew a nice barrier on Saturday night, but there are plenty more leading hopes sitting near the top of betting.

The lightly-raced colt has turned plenty of heads, but not everyone is on board when it comes to his chances in the Cup and he faces some elite rivals.

Speaking on Wide World Of Sports’ Melbourne Cup preview, form analyst David Gately explained why “history is against” the three-year-old Ciaron Maher-trained runner and revealed his tip for the 3200m classic on Tuesday.

“It’s a fascinating race, obviously a strong overseas contingent this year,” he said.

“Some of them we’re seeing first-up, while we’ve seen Point Of Law go to Geelong and won really well. Can he win it in start six? History is against him.

“It’s a deep Melbourne Cup. I’ve probably got it down to 10 or 12 [who can win].

“I’ve been with Trustyourinstinct to some extent all the way through. Did I want him to draw a little bit better? Probably, because he’s a horse who likes a bit of a smother, but he’s handled big fields and he quickens like a good horse.

“Even though he’s a seven-year-old now, he is lightly raced and he brings in some epic form lines. J-Mac [jockey James McDonald] is in form and that always helps.

“I thought Point Of Law was excellent at Geelong and the race is rated really well, but the challenge for him is an obvious one – he’s got to defy history and win it in start number six – but he’d likely be my second pick.

“I think Shockletz is the pick of the locals and certainly goes in the mix for me.”

Gately has also thrown last year’s placegetter Middle Earth and the in-form So You Are into the mix as each-way chances among the Cup field.

Here’s every runner in the 2026 Melbourne Cup. Odds courtesy of TAB.

1. Sons And Lovers (3)

Weight: 57.5kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle

Career: 23-6-2-6

Odds: $21

2. Trustyourinstinct (18)

Weight: 57kg

Age/Sex: 6yo gelding

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 30-9-7-4

Odds: $8

3. Knight’s Choice (2)

Weight: 56.5kg

Age/Sex: 7yo gelding

Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 31-6-3-3

Odds: $34

4. Middle Earth (1)

Weight: 56.5kg

Age/Sex: 6yo gelding

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 29-7-4-3

Odds: $13

5. Vauban (22)

Weight: 56.5kg

Age/Sex: 8yo gelding

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 35-11-5-6

Odds: $51

6. Enfjaar (8)

Weight: 56kg

Age/Sex: 6yo gelding

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Ray Dawson

Career: 18-5-2-3

Odds: $21

7. Royal Supremacy (21)

Weight: 56kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 25-8-4-5

Odds: $51

8. Wine Dark Sea (23)

Weight: 56kg

Age/Sex: 4yo gelding

Trainer: Harry Charlton

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 11-4-2-0

Odds: $51

9. Asterix (6)

Weight: 55kg

Age/Sex: 8yo gelding

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 33-8-1-2

Odds: $81

10. Goodie Two Shoes (19)

Weight: 55kg

Age/Sex: 7yo mare

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 31-14-2-7

Odds: $31

11. Juja Kibo (14)

Weight: 55kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 20-6-3-6

Odds: $11

12. Hopewell Rock (15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Age/Sex: 4yo gelding

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 10-3-3-2

Odds: $9

13. Onesmoothoperator (13)

Weight: 54.5kg

Age/Sex: 8yo gelding

Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 59-6-11-8

Odds: $81

14. Soul Of Spain (5)

Weight: 54.5kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 29-5-5-8

Odds: $41

15. Zahrann (11)

Weight: 54.5kg

Age/Sex: 4yo stallion

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 12-4-2-1

Odds: $23

16. So You Are (7)

Weight: 54kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 28-8-6-6

Odds: $19

17. Future History (12)

Weight: 54kg

Age/Sex: 8yo gelding

Trainer: Greg Hickman

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 48-10-6-6

Odds: $71

18. James J Braddock (24)

Weight: 53.5kg

Age/Sex: 3yo gelding

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8-2-1-2

Odds: $13

19. Kizlyar (20)

Weight: 53.5kg

Age/Sex: 4yo gelding

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 11-3-2-2

Odds: $41

20. Point Of Law (9)

Weight: 53kg

Age/Sex: 3yo colt

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 5: 3-1-0

Odds: $6

21. Strictly Business (4)

Weight: 53kg

Age/Sex: 4yo mare

Trainer: Thomas Carberry

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 11-2-2-0

Odds: $81

22. Mr Monaco (16)

Weight: 52.5kg

Age/Sex: 5yo gelding

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jabez Johnstone

Career: 25-8-3-2

Odds: $26

23. Zakouma (10)

Weight: 52kg

Age/Sex: 6yo gelding

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 18-5-2-1

Odds: $34

24. Shockletz (17)

Weight: 51kg

Age/Sex: 5yo mare

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Harry Coffey*

Career: 20-7-3-1

Odds: $11