‘Is he ready?‘: Doubts cast over ‘immature’ Melbourne Cup favourite

Simon O’Donnell is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer.

It’s known as the race that stops the nation and at 3pm on Tuesday (AEDT) millions of eyeballs will be tuned in for the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

But with 24 horses lining up at the barriers it can be tough to sort the contenders from the pretenders in the epic two-mile Flemington feature.

While there’s a clear favourite in the field, I’m looking elsewhere in the 2026 edition of the great race, with some value among other runners.

Let’s run through every runner, looking at the positives and negatives and whether they are a genuine winning chance.

All odds courtesy of TAB, correct as of Sunday, November 1.

1. Sons And Lovers (3)

Weight: 57.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Dylan Brown McMonagle

Career: 23-6-2-6

Odds: $23

One of the big O’Brien team over here from Ireland. He’s had a couple of good international runs over 3200m in recent times and his trainer obviously knows the types of horses that can win Melbourne Cups, given he’s already won two. He has a massive weight of 57.5kg and we don’t often see the top weight winning this race, but on he’s day he is genuinely capable of doing it.

2. Trustyourinstinct (18)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 30-9-7-4

Odds: $8

I’m not sure whether the bigger influence here is O’Brien or McDonald. He’s one of those interesting Irish runners, he’s won over hurdles in recent preparations and they’re not hesitant to do that in the northern hemisphere and he seems to have come through it all very well. Two runs back he won at Group 2 level at Curragh and while his St Leger run wasn’t great, he’s got to be rated a genuine chance.

3. Knight’s Choice (2)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 31-6-3-3

Odds: $34

I’m not sure how to read Knight’s Choice going into this race. It was a great win two years back, but he had health issues last year. His run in the Herbert Power Stakes was an absolute belter, crossing the line with two others, which seemed to show he was really back relishing racing – but he was very flat in the Caulfield Cup and he’ll need to get some spring back in his step on Tuesday.

4. Middle Earth (1)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 29-7-4-3

Odds: $13

He ran third last year and his preparation this year has been better. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was better than it appeared on paper and it shows the horse has come on a little bit. He was just found wanting in the last 100 metres in last year’s Cup, so the question is whether that’s going to happen again or whether Ciaron getting miles into his legs will pay off? I think he’s a genuine each-way chance.

5. Vauban (22)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 35-11-5-6

Odds: $51

Once horses have had a go at the Cup, they generally don’t get better as time goes on. He’s now nine years old and is a very good stayer, but he’s having his fourth attempt at this race and I can’t see him making the required improvement.

6. Enfjaar (8)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Ray Dawson

Career: 18-5-2-3

Odds: $21

He’s a shrewd, consistent galloper who has got a very good trainer from England behind him. His run in the Caulfield Cup was OK, he hadn’t run for nearly three months prior to that and you could expect him to not quite finish the race off. I’m sure they’ve picked up what they necessarily needed to do with him, between the Caulfield Cup and this Tuesday. They’re doing the right thing by keeping him very safe in betting because I think it could be a genuine chance.

7. Royal Supremacy (21)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 25-8-4-5

Odds: $41

I’m just not sure he has the class to step up to be right in the finish in a Melbourne Cup, but a top-10 finish wouldn’t be a surprise.

8. Wine Dark Sea

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Harry Charlton

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 11-4-2-0

Odds: $41

He hasn’t been helped by the barrier, which is going to test Damian Lane even though he’s been in good form. His form in England has been very sound albeit over lesser distances. Had a tough run in the Caulfield Cup which I’d be prepared to forgive. He’s one of the longer-priced horses that I think is a chance of running top-four and if there’s rain around, it makes the chances even better.

9. Asterix (6)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey:

Career: 33-8-1-2

Odds: $71

He’s raced on some unsuitable tracks in his preparation, but ran fourth in the Auckland Cup which was his first time over 3200m. I think because of the tracks he’s run on leading into this race, I’m not prepared to cast him aside ... but purely on form, I do struggle to see how he can win the race.

10. Goodie Two Shoes (19)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 31-14-2-7

Odds: $26

She was fantastic last year finishing second in the Cup, but she steps up heavily in weight from 51.5kg to 55kg this time. Her form this year I don’t think has been as good and she’s followed a very similar pattern coming in. I’m not seeing the same determination and finish in her races, so I’m prepared to watch and see.

12. Juja Kibo (14)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 20-6-3-6

Odds: $11

His last furlong in the Moonee Valley Cup was fantastic and that was the strongest of that race I’ve seen in my time watching. The way he hit the line was full of credit and on the back of that, performing well at Flemington and with the Ciaron Maher polish, I think he’s one of the genuine winning chances.

13. Hopewell Rock (15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 10-3-3-2

Odds: $11

The stable has had a good summer over in England and northern hemisphere folk talk really highly of this fella, he’s improving all the time. Finished second in the Ebor Handicap, which is really strong form coming into a Melbourne Cup. Just on that effort alone, I think he’s got a good chance of being in the finish.

13. Onesmoothoperator (13)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 59-6-11-8

Odds: $71

He would really need to leap out of the ground to be in the finish. He’s had two previous cracks at the Melbourne Cup and he doesn’t seem to be going as well as previous years. It would be a massive surprise if he finished top-10.

14. Soul Of Spain (5)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 29-5-5-8

Odds: $34

I thought his run in the Caulfield Cup was plain, but he’s run second in a Sydney Cup over two miles. That indicates to me that distance won’t be the query – the query for me is stepping up in class and leaving a fair bit out there last start.

15. Zahrann (11)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 12-4-2-1

Odds: $26

He was the favourite five weeks ago after winning the Naturalism Stakes. You could probably make an excuse or two for him in the Caulfield Cup last start, so if you’re prepared to forgive him, that Naturalism win was full of merit. He’s a horse that has a turn of foot and that is very important, especially if Ben Melham can nestle him away and give him a sweet ride. I think he’s a genuine top-four hope.

16. So You Are (7)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 28-8-6-6

Odds: $14

He’s been in fantastic form and so has the whole Bjorn Baker stable. His win in the Bendigo Cup was full of merit, but I’m not sure I’m ready for a Bendigo Cup winner to win the Melbourne Cup. There are horses with a lot more class and ability in this race, but he deserves his spot and top-10 would be credible.

17. Future History (12)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Greg Hickman

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 48-10-6-6

Odds: $51

He ran fourth in the Herbert Power and was honest in the Moonee Valley Cup. I think he’s a nice, well-equipped stayer but not entirely sure he has the V8 engine that’s good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

18. James J Braddock (24)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8-2-1-2

Odds: $16

He’s a really interesting runner – he had other things on his mind as a colt but since being gelded, has been really impressive. People have always had a really high opinion of this horse, he has good staying credentials and being gelded has really seemed to get his mind on the job. For that fact alone and the ability he’s shown as a young horse, mentally turning the corner, he’s a top-four chance.

19. Kizlyar (20)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 11-3-2-2

Odds: $34

I thought he was a bit flat in the Moonee Valley Cup, he was ridden on speed and had every chance and just didn’t find the line. I think you need to have that little bit of fleet-footedness to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup and he didn’t have that. If it’s a tough two miles that could bring him into the race, but if they go quick in the middle sections I think Kizlyar will struggle.

20. Point Of Law (9)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 5: 3-1-0

Odds: $6.50

Geez this is an interesting one. After he won the Geelong Cup, his trainer Ciaron Maher was talking about the challenges of getting to know him since he’s been in Australia and he hasn’t been here that long. Is he ready to win a Melbourne Cup? You have to tick all the boxes in terms of parade and going to the barrier. He’s obviously still a little bit immature in the mind, so I wonder if 2026 is his year, or will it be 2027? He’s the deserved favourite after the Geelong Cup win but whether he’s mentally ready, we’ll find out when the gates open on Tuesday.

21. Strictly Business (4)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Thomas Carberry

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 11-2-2-0

Odds: $81

Look she’s an honest horse and won the VRC Oaks last year, but whether she’s got the class to win a Melbourne Cup, I’m not so sure.

22. Mr Monaco (16)

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jabez Johnstone

Career: 25-8-3-2

Odds: $23

He got the golden ticket after winning the Bart Cummings on a wet track at Flemington and then backed it up with a good run in the Moonee Valley Cup. He will genuinely run the trip and I think his form leading in is as good as he could possibly do, which gives him a fantastic chance of a top-10 finish.

23. Zakouma (10)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 18-5-2-1

Odds: $26

Found his way into the Cup back in May and they’ve given him a really interesting campaign since then, knowing that he’d already qualified. He ran over 1600m on Cox Plate day, which is not a traditional preparation going into a two-mile race, but Grahame is a wonderful horseman, so I think he’ll run to the best of his ability – but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

24. Shockletz (17)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 20-7-3-1

Odds: $11

She’s been there or thereabouts everywhere she’s gone, there’s plenty of miles in the legs and she rarely runs a bad race. I’m expecting her to be competitive, but whether the class is there to win, I have a big question mark over.

Simon O’Donnell’s Melbourne Cup tips

1 - TRUSTYOURINSTINCT

2 - MIDDLE EARTH

3 - JUJA KIBO

4 - ZAHRANN