Why every Melbourne Cup horse can - or can’t - win $10 million race

It’s known as the race that stops the nation and at 3pm on Tuesday (AEDT) millions of eyeballs will be tuned in for the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

But with 24 horses lining up at the barriers it can be tough to sort the contenders from the pretenders in the epic two-mile Flemington feature.

Last year, Half Yours took out the $10 million race as Jamie Melham became just the second female jockey to win the Cup, a decade after Michelle Payne.

As always, there are some overseas raiders from Europe and Asia, while there are plenty of horses who ply their trade on Aussie soil consistently.

Nine.com.au runs through every runner in the 2026 field, looking at the positives and negatives and whether they are a genuine winning chance.

All odds courtesy of TAB, correct as of Sunday, November 1.

1. Sons And Lovers (3)

Weight: 57.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle

Career: 23-6-2-6

Odds: $23

One runner who will be stepping foot onto an Aussie track for the first time will be the six-year-old O’Brien-trained gelding, who has competed across Europe, Dubai and Saudi Arabia to some success. Sons And Lovers has six wins and eight placings from 23 career starts, but remains somewhat of an unknown.

2. Trustyourinstinct (18)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 30-9-7-4

Odds: $8

Another horse first-up in Australia, but with J-Mac booked to ride there will plenty of interest and he looks to be a real threat. The seven-year-old gelding is one of the more experienced horses in this year’s Cup, with nine wins and 11 placings from 30 career starts. Trustyourinstinct has raced predominantly in the UK, with his last start a fourth-placed finish in the Group 1 Irish St Leger in September. One of the betting favourites and should be there or thereabouts.

3. Knight’s Choice (2)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 31-6-3-3

Odds: $34

The only past Cup winner competing in this year’s race after an unlikely triumph two years ago, it’s difficult to see Knight’s Choice causing a boilover again. The gelding hasn’t tasted victory since this race two years ago, but did produce a strong performance to finish third in the Might And Power Stakes last month.

4. Middle Earth (1)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 29-7-4-3

Odds: $12

Comes in with a big preparation behind him, having raced in both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate in the past fortnight, giving him plenty of miles in the legs. While the seven-year-old gelding failed to fire in either of those races, Maher will have Middle Earth primed for the Cup after finishing third in last year’s edition and the booking of two-time winning jockey Zahra will only help his chances.

5. Vauban (22)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 35-11-5-6

Odds: $51

Returns for a fourth and surely final attempt at the race that stops the nation. The eight-year-old gelding had three trials before the Geelong Cup, where he finished six lengths behind the winner, so it’s hard to label him a threat even with the true staying class he has shown at times over the years.

6. Enfjaar (8)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Ray Dawson

Career: 18-5-2-3

Odds: $21

Has to be seen as one of the leading contenders, especially after a strong run finishing third in the Caulfield Cup on his Australian debut. The gelding is rather lightly-raced for a seven-year-old, having won five and placed in another five of his 18 career starts. Certainly one to watch in an intriguing Cup field.

7. Royal Supremacy (21)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 25-8-4-5

Odds: $41

Returns for another crack over the 3200m trip at Flemington as a rough hope, especially after getting soundly beaten by 17 lengths in the Caulfield Cup a fortnight ago. The six-year-old Maher-trained gelding won the Group 3 JRA Cup a start before that, so he may not be the worst outsider in the field.

8. Wine Dark Sea (23)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Harry Charlton

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 11-4-2-0

Odds: $41

Was highly-touted leading into his Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup, but failed to live up to the hype and was comfortably beaten. That being said, the five-year-old gelding has four wins and two placings from 11 career starts and could be forgiven for struggling first-up in unfamiliar territory, but the gate won’t help.

9. Asterix (6)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 33-8-1-2

Odds: $71

It’s been a spring to forget thus far, with the Waller-trained eight-year-old gelding going through a string of poor results that included being beaten by 43 lengths in the Turnbull Stakes last month. Looks an extreme long shot in this field.

10. Goodie Two Shoes (19)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 31-14-2-7

Odds: $26

Returning for another Melbourne Cup tilt after finishing second last year, the mare has been in solid form over the past 12 months but was soundly beaten by nine lengths last time out in Leopardstown. If she can replicate last year’s run at Flemington, she will be every chance of going one better.

11. Juja Kibo (14)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 20-6-3-6

Odds: $11

One of many runners from the Maher stable, the in-form gelding comes into the Cup with back-to-back victories at Group 2 level in the Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Cup. With six wins and nine placings from 20 career starts, Juja Kibo looms as a genuine contender to win the great race on Tuesday.

12. Hopewell Rock (15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 10-3-3-2

Odds: $11

Talented five-year-old gelding who comes with a strong career record overseas for his Australian debut, winning three times and placing another five across 10 starts. Prominent in the betting market for a reason and wouldn’t come as a surprise if he gives it a shake on Tuesday afternoon.

13. Onesmoothoperator (13)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 59-6-11-8

Odds: $81

Returns for a third-straight crack at the Cup, but is unfortunately going far worse than his previous two attempts. The eight-year-old gelding was off the pace against weaker rivals in the Geelong Cup and Herbert Power Stakes, so it’s rather difficult to see the old boy factoring into the finish.

14. Soul Of Spain (5)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 29-5-5-8

Odds: $34

Has endured a tough preparation, but Waller has clearly built the six-year-old gelding up for this race after he ran in both the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup. After nearly taking out the Sydney Cup over two miles earlier this year, beaten by less than half a length, there should be no concerns over Soul Of Spain seeing out the trip – but whether he has the class to win remains to be seen.

15. Zahrann (11)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 12-4-2-1

Odds: $26

Has been solid but unspectacular since arriving on Australian soil a year ago and joining the Maher camp, winning the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes earlier in this preparation but finishing sixth in the Caulfield Cup. The ability is there, having won four times and placed another three across 12 career starts, but the five-year-old stallion needs to lift from his previous outing.

16. So You Are (7)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 28-8-6-6

Odds: $16

A change in trainer has done wonders for this horse, who has rocketed into the Cup field following four-straight victories, albeit at lesser grade. The five-year-old gelding stormed home in the Bendigo Cup last week and continues to turn plenty of heads across the spring carnival and the Bjorn Baker stable is on fire.

17. Future History (12)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Greg Hickman

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 48-10-6-6

Odds: $51

Gets last year’s winning jockey on board, but it’s hard to see that being enough to lift the eight-year-old gelding to victory in the Cup. He’s produced some solid runs during the spring, but struggled last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup.

18. James J Braddock (24)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8-2-1-2

Odds: $14

Lightly-raced gelding having his first Australian start and brings a solid career record to the Cup, with two wins and three placings from eight starts. The four-year-old presents as a good chance and Willow in the saddle can’t hurt either, but the carpark barrier draw may be a factor against him come race time.

19. Kizlyar (20)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 11-3-2-2

Odds: $34

Wasn’t fantastic last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup, but brings decent overseas form to the table, having won three races and placed in another four across 11 career starts. Certainly one to watch, but not a leading hope.

20. Point Of Law (9)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 5: 3-1-0

Odds: $6.50

Bolted into favouritism after a brilliant win in the Geelong Cup, in a race that doubled as the three-year-old’s Aussie debut. The lightly-raced stallion has three wins from five career starts and since arriving in the Maher camp, has emerged as a huge shot of winning the Cup but will need to replicate his latest effort and probably even improve on it, with question marks over the horse’s temperament.

21. Strictly Business (4)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Thomas Carberry

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Career: 11-2-2-0

Odds: $101

After winning the VRC Oaks a year ago, the mare has struggled to replicate that form and comes into the Cup having been beaten a combined 30.69 lengths in her past three starts. While she obviously has ability, a win would be a big surprise.

22. Mr Monaco (16)

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jabez Johnstone

Career: 25-8-3-2

Odds: $23

The six-year-old was in the winner’s circle a month before the Cup, taking out the Group 3 Bart Cummings, before backing up with a third-placed finish in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. With eight wins and five placings in 25 career starts, Mr Monaco isn’t a leading contender, but there’s plenty to like about his chances.

23. Zakouma (10)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 18-5-2-1

Odds: $26

Has gone through a rather dour spring preparation to date, but there shouldn’t be any concerns over the gelding’s fitness, having run four times since August, but the most recent of those was a last-placed finish in the Group 2 Kia Ora Stud Mile. The appointment of jockey William Pike could be a boost after his recent Cox Plate success, but Zakouma may be up against it in this field.

24. Shockletz (17)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 20-7-3-1

Odds: $11

Won the Lexus Archer Stakes at Group 3 level earlier in the spring and placed again last start, the five-year-old mare comes in with strong form and will be one of Maher’s leading chances to take it out. Shockletz is the daughter of 2009 Cup winner Shocking, so you know she has elite-level staying pedigree.