‘Not convinced’: Question marks hang over local Melbourne Cup fancy

Francesca Cumani is a world-renowned horse-racing presenter and commentator.

It’s known as the race that stops the nation and at 3pm on Tuesday (AEDT) millions of eyeballs will be tuned in for the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

But with 24 horses lining up at the barriers it can be tough to sort the contenders from the pretenders in the epic two-mile Flemington feature.

There are some brilliant contenders – especially from the overseas contingent – while a couple of in-form local hopes could give the Cup a shake.

Let’s take a look at every runner in the 2026 field, looking at the positives and negatives and whether they are a genuine winning chance.

All odds courtesy of TAB, correct as of Saturday, October 31.

1. Sons And Lovers (3)

Weight: 57.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle

Career: 23-6-2-6

Odds: $21

One of the enormous Joseph O’Brien army and you know what, they are all so highly qualified that it’s hard picking one over the others. His form is very good, the win in Saudi was a very good win in a similar type of race. He’s got plenty of weight however, but given what he’s done, he deserves to be in the mix. Ryan Moore is riding it as well and that’s a big positive. Definitely a chance.

2. Trustyourinstinct (18)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 30-9-7-4

Odds: $8

Everyone will be watching for J-Mac and he’s also owned by JP McManus, who came second in the race last year with Goodie Two Shoes. I think his family fell in love with the race and this race has been their mission from a long way out. Trustyourinstinct won the Curragh Cup, which is a race Joseph has used for his past two Melbourne Cup winners, so it’s a tried and tested route. Another one of the leading chances in the race and deservedly among the favourites.

3. Knight’s Choice (2)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 31-6-3-3

Odds: $34

I think he’s been forgotten again. I completely overlooked him two years ago and if anything, he’s going better than he was then. Sheila Laxon has run two horses in the Melbourne Cup and won it with both, so you can’t argue with her record.

4. Middle Earth (1)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 29-7-4-3

Odds: $13

His lead-up form doesn’t stand out, but the fact he ran so well over 3200m last year is the biggest positive in his favour.

5. Vauban (22)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 35-11-5-6

Odds: $51

Fourth attempt at the race, nine-year-old, not going good enough – no chance.

6. Enfjaar (8)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Roger Varian

Jockey: Ray Dawson

Career: 18-5-2-3

Odds: $21

His target was the Caulfield Cup, where he ran a good third. He’s a question mark at this distance and I fear he’s a little bit of an afterthought.

7. Royal Supremacy (21)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 25-8-4-5

Odds: $51

No hope, basically. Down the field in the Caulfield Cup, not proven over the distance and not one of the main picks from the Maher stable.

8. Wine Dark Sea (23)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Harry Charlton

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 11-4-2-0

Odds: $51

I didn’t love the way he finished the Caulfield Cup. He’s very in and out form-wise, has the ability but too inconsistent.

9. Asterix (6)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 33-8-1-2

Odds: $81

One of two runners for Chris Waller and I can’t see either of them winning. He was down the field in the Caulfield Cup and last the start before that.

10. Goodie Two Shoes (19)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 31-14-2-7

Odds: $31

Ran second last year carrying 51.5kg and goes up to 55kg here. I think she wants a firmer track. She was very good winning the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood this year and that was on a very firm track. Rain would be a negative for her.

11. Juja Kibo (14)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 20-6-3-6

Odds: $11

He was good winning the Mooney Valley Cup last start and is definitely one of the main local chances. Only his second attempt at the distance and the only previous attempt was in the Sydney Cup where he finished ninth. I’m not convinced he’s an out-and-out two-miler, especially if we end up getting a strong tempo.

12. Hopewell Rock (15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 10-3-3-2

Odds: $9

One of my main fancies in the race. I probably wouldn’t back him at really short odds, but now that he’s guaranteed a place the money has come for him. He ran second in the Ebor Handicap, which has been a pretty good form reference, he probably should have won it if not for the jockey dropping his whip. He’s a very dependable, solid horse with a good temperament and will take some stopping.

13. Onesmoothoperator (13)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 59-6-11-8

Odds: $81

No chance, simply.

14. Soul Of Spain (5)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 29-5-5-8

Odds: $41

Another one with no chance, I think. Would be a major surprise.

15. Zahrann (11)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 12-4-2-1

Odds: $23

Another horse in that same category. He’s stepping up to two miles for the first time and there’s not much in his recent form to suggest he’s got the required improvement in him for a race like this.

16. So You Are (7)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 28-8-6-6

Odds: $19

The winner of the Bendigo Cup, but the form out of that doesn’t read particularly well to me. I feel bad saying it, because he’s won his last four races, but they were all at a lower level and he needs to take a significant step up here.

17. Future History (12)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Greg Hickman

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 48-10-6-6

Odds: $71

It’s great to see Jamie back in the saddle after winning last year with Half Yours, but I don’t think her ride this time around has got any chance.

18. James J Braddock (24)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8-2-1-2

Odds: $13

Big chance. Northern hemisphere three-year-old, likes it soft if the rain comes. He’s had an under the radar preparation, but I think they were very happy with his run in the Kilternan Stakes and reports from Werribee about him are good.

19. Kizlyar (20)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 11-3-2-2

Odds: $41

I wanted to see a bit more from him in the Moonee Valley Cup, but I think the stop-start nature of that race didn’t help. He’s an out-and-out stayer and if we can get a fast-run Cup, he could offer some good value.

20. Point Of Law (9)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 5: 3-1-0

Odds: $6

Good winner of the Geelong Cup in just his fifth lifetime start. He’s got a nice light weight and also a northern hemisphere three-year-old. He’s talented, but I think he will be one to watch on the day, because he’s been a handful at Werribee.

21. Strictly Business (4)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Thomas Carberry

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 11-2-2-0

Odds: $81

Oaks winner from last year and hasn’t won since. Would be very unexpected.

22. Mr Monaco (16)

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jabez Johnstone

Career: 25-8-3-2

Odds: $26

I think he’s got a good chance because he’s got a good, light weight. He’s in good form, having run a good race in the Moonee Valley Cup and winning the Bart Cummings before that. Not guaranteed at the distance, but in good form of late.

23. Zakouma (10)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 18-5-2-1

Odds: $34

No chance for mine.

24. Shockletz (17)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Harry Coffey*

Career: 20-7-3-1

Odds: $11

The bottom weight of 51kg brings him right into calculations. Ran an eye-catching race on Cox Plate day, but is unproven at the distance and needs to take the next step and prove herself over two miles and at this grade.

Francesca Cumani’s Melbourne Cup tips

1 - HOPEWELL ROCK

2 - JAMES J BRADDOCK

3 - TRUSTYOURINSTINCT

4 - MR MONACO