Expert floats surprise double-digit hopes in wide-open $3m Derby

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It’s one of the most time-honoured races in the country and this year’s Howden Victoria Derby promises to be another classic.

The long-standing Group 1 event for three-year-old horses over the 2500m trip boasts a wide-open field this year on a golden day of racing at Flemington.

The likes of Cormier and Stormy Marco are prominent in betting, but it could be a situation where it’s $5 the field once they jump on Saturday afternoon.

Speaking on Wide World of Sports’ Victoria Derby Day preview, form analyst David Gately has spotted two runners at double-digit odds who are right in the mix.

“Where do you start and finish with the Derby this year? It’s a wide race,” he said.

“I think there’s a couple drawn wide that will just press on. Skua and Vallice have shown they can go forward and be competitive. I like the fight they’ve both shown.

“I think it will be a truly run Derby relative to the age and class, and they are two horses that I think are at a nice price and can run really well in it.”

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Skua finished a narrow second on Cox Plate day behind True Rebel and will be Gately’s top tip in the biggest race of the day.

He also noted while it was “unusual” to see a filly in the race, there’s reason to believe Quick Finish can perform in a hotly-contested Derby.

Another feature race on Saturday’s card will be the Group 1 Empire Roses Stakes for fillies and mares, with a red-hot $2.40 favourite over the mile distance.

Lady Shenandoah was impressive last start taking out the G1 Toorak Handicap against similar competition and has the elite jockey-trainer combination of James McDonald and Chris Waller behind her, which is never a bad thing.

But according to Gately, the five-year-old mare isn’t alone in this 1600m blockbuster.

“She’s a terrific mare and her will to win in that race with 58kg ... that was a great win with the weights against her, and she comes back to her own sex,” he said.

“That being said, she’s not unbeatable. Idle Flyer ran straight past her in a corresponding race last prep ... there’s probably four or five I can make a case for.

“I’m wondering if the likes of Unleeshing and Concord Conny on that upwards trajectory can measure right up. I’m gonna go with Unleeshing on top.”

The other three-year-old Group 1 race will pit some of the country’s best young sprinters against each other in the Coolmore Stud Stakes.

The Next Episode has drawn barrier 14 but down the Flemington straight and with queries over the weather conditions, Gately sees that as an advantage.

“I had real trouble splitting he and Satono Glow for a top seed, but the barrier draw swayed me, and I’m convinced they will be off that inside section [of the track] ... it’s advantage, The Next Episode,” Gately said.

While it’s an incredible card full of top races, all eyes will be on the $3 million Derby with some of Australia’s most prodigious young stayers.

The first race at Flemington is scheduled to jump at 12.20pm, with the feature race at 4.20pm and the meeting finishing after the last at 5.40pm.

Here’s every runner competing in the Derby. Odds courtesy of TAB.

1. Cormier (3)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: P Messara & L Gavranich

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Career: 7-1-3

Odds: $4.80

2. Stormy Marco (15)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 7-1-2

Odds: $4.60

3. True Rebel (16)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Billy Egan

Career: 4-2-2

Odds: $8

4. King Snitz (5)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Shane Jackson

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 4-2-1

Odds: $11

5. Murshidi (17)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 5-1-2

Odds: $14

6. Vallice (13)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 7-1-2

Odds: $13

7. Skua (12)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 6-1-3

Odds: $14

8. Cignetti (11)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: T Bussutin & N Young

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 6-1-4

Odds: $14

9. Icy You (9)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: T Bussutin & N Young

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 5-1-3

Odds: $13

10. True Tone (14)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jason Collett

Career: 5-1-2

Odds: $19

12. Written Empire (2)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: B, W & J Hayes

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 4-1-1

Odds: $34

13. Russian Rock (6)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Michael Trotter

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 4-1-1

Odds: $26

14. Cold Shower (4)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: G Waterhouse & A Bott

Jockey: Jett Stanley

Career: 3-1-1

Odds: $61

15. King Winston (8)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Greg Eurell

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Career: 4-0-1

Odds: $51

16. Quick Finish (10)

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: T & C McEvoy

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 4-3-0

Odds: $19

17. Meet The Prince (1)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Patrick Kearney

Jockey: Jackson Radley

Career: 5-0-2

Odds: $151

18. Locked In (7)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: K & K Keys

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 4-0-0

Odds: $151