Melbourne cup weather forecast flemington track conditions 20261102 p61ahm.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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Heavy rain, possible flash floods could turn Melbourne Cup on its head

Liam O'Loughlin
Liam O'Loughlin

Updated . First published at

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Lexus Melbourne Cup week has arrived, and all eyes will be on the weather across the city leading into Tuesday afternoon’s great race.

Melbourne’s weather is famously unpredictable and during the Derby Day meeting on Saturday, there was a mix between bright blue skies and thunderstorms as nearly 90,000 fans flocked to Flemington.

Will there be clear skies on Tuesday? Getty Images

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The track held up nicely on the day and with a clear day on Sunday, it remains a good four rating for the Cup as of Monday morning.

That could all change very quickly, however, as rain is predicted for Monday, with thunderstorms forecast and even the potential for flash floods.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, there could be anywhere between 3mm and 15mm of rainfall across the Melbourne area.

If 15mm of rain falls, the Flemington track could be downgraded, which would play a significant role in how the $10 million race shakes out.

As for Cup day itself, there’s only a small chance of showers predicted, which is a massive boost for racegoers, jockeys and the horses themselves.

If you’re looking for runners who relish a wet track, the Ciaron Maher-trained Juja Kibo ($11) and Bjorn Baker-trained So You Are ($12) are among them.

The temperatures will be a fair bit cooler than it was across the weekend, with tops of 19 degrees on Monday and 18 on Tuesday.

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