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Why every 2025 Melbourne Cup runner can - and can't - win the iconic $10 million race
Updated . First published
Runner by runner guide
The Lexus Melbourne Cup is known as "the race that stops the nation" and at 3pm on Tuesday (AEDT) millions of eyeballs will be tuned in.
But with 24 horses lining up at the barriers it can be tough to sort the contenders from the pretenders.
Wide World of Sports runs through every runner in the 2025 field, looking at the positives and negatives and whether they are a genuine winning chance.
All odds courtesy of TAB, correct as of Sunday November 2.
Watch the 2025 Melbourne Cup Carnival live and free on Nine and 9Now.
READ MORE: Michelle Payne's 2025 Melbourne Cup form guide: 'Crucial' reason $23 shot can upset the favourites
LIVE UPDATES: Melbourne Cup results as they happen
1. Al Riffa (19)
Weight: 59kg
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Career: 17: 5-6-1
Odds: $7 / $2.80
Another overseas runner having his first race in Australia after creating a really solid resume in Europe to date.
Has only missed a place five times across 17 career starts and comes into this after a nice break following a four-length win in the Group 1 Irish St Leger Stakes in mid-September.
Will have to carry the top weight in the race and jump from an ugly gate, but there's plenty to like about this Joseph O'Brien-trained stallion and he shapes as one of the leading chances.
Has surged into favouritism with some punters standing to win huge.
Easygo, the parent company of Stake.com, placed a $500,000 bet on Al Riffa at Monday's call of the card and will collect $4 million if it wins.
Notable pro punter Kingsley Bartholomew from Wolfden placed a bet of $150,000 to win more than $1 million.
2. Buckaroo (12)
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams
Career: 31: 5-6-6
Odds: $11 / $3.90
The other one of Chris Waller's real live hopes comes into this race with highly credible form after finishing a nose behind Via Sistina in the Cox Plate and only narrowly missing earlier in his prep in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.
The seven-year-old gelding didn't live up to the hype last year in the Cup, where he finished ninth and 3.5 lengths off the winner, but looks primed for another tilt.
Could he follow the same path as Verry Elleegant in 2021, where the legendary mare placed in the Cox Plate before bolting to victory in the Cup less than a fortnight later?
It's a very strong chance of happening, especially after drawing a nice barrier, with the distance his only query.
3. Arapaho (15)
Weight: 56.5kg
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Career: 49: 10-6-4
Odds: $34 / $10
A genuine and honest stayer coming towards the end of his career, the nine-year-old gelding is the oldest horse in the race and his form leading in hasn't exactly set the world on fire.
However, trainer Bjorn Baker knows how to get the best out of his horses at the right time and Arapaho took out the Group 1 Sydney Cup over two miles earlier this year, proving his aptitude to run at this distance.
It will be the horse's 50th career start and what a way to cap off that milestone it would be if he could cause an upset.
4. Vauban (2)
Weight: 56.5kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Career: 32: 11-5-4
Odds: $23 / $7
Running in his third Cup but has failed to fire in either of his previous starts in the famous race before joining the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable.
Started as the favourite two years ago but completely flopped and finished more than 13 lengths behind the winner, before another disappointing showing last year saw him finish five lengths off.
This time around, the eight-year-old gelding comes in deeper into a prep with four starts already this spring, with the best of those results coming in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes over a mile.
Clearly a class horse, but will need to lift if it's going to be third time lucky.
5. Chevalier Rose (5)
Weight: 55.5kg
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu
Jockey: Damian Lane
Career: 35: 5-5-2
Odds: $51 / $12
Yet another runner having a first career start on Australian soil but doesn't come in with the best recent form, beaten by six lengths in each of her past three starts back home in Japan.
The five-year-old mare is a genuine stayer who has won at group level before, but will need a big performance to topple the rest of this field.
6. Presage Nocturne (9)
Weight: 55.5kg
Trainer: Alessandro Botti
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career: 18: 6-5-3
Odds: $8.50 / $3
One of two greys in the race, the French-bred stallion comes in after a strong showing in the Caulfield Cup, finishing fourth and only 1.8 lengths behind the winner Half Yours.
The six-year-old has won a third of his career starts to date and will have no issue staying the 3200m distance.
Looms as one of the best overseas chances and sits near the top of betting.
7. Middle Earth (13)
Weight: 54.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Career: 18: 5-3-2
Odds: $34 / $10
The former UK standout moved to Australia earlier this year to link up with trainer Ciaron Maher and won on debut in early-March but has been slightly underwhelming since then.
The six-year-old gelding has competed against strong Group 1 company all year, including in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Caulfield Cup, but hasn't been able to replicate his class on Aussie soil.
On his day, could still be a good chance to take out this type of race however.
8. Meydaan (22)
Weight: 54kg
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 17: 3-2-2
Odds: $23 / $6
Comes into this race after a tough first start in Australia, finishing ninth and 4.7 lengths behind the Caulfield Cup winner.
However, getting the best jockey in the world on board won't hurt his chances and the five-year-old gelding is certainly one punters should keep an eye on.
The wide gate following Saturday night's official draw is a big concern, but if anyone can overcome it, J-Mac is him.
9. Absurde (4)
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Career: 29: 7-7-6
Odds: $16 / $5
Was one of the fancies last year in the Melbourne Cup and will be among the chances again this time around.
Went back to the UK during the year and had some solid performances, before landing back in Australia for a seventh-placed finish in the Caulfield Cup.
The eight-year-old gelding is not without claims at Flemington on Tuesday.
