Expert warns four everyday supermarket staples are set to get more expensive

Australian shoppers are bracing themselves for further grocery price increases, despite inflation easing.

RaboResearch senior food analyst Michael Harvey has told nine.com.au a unique set of global price pressures have left Australia particular vulnerable to higher food prices.

There’s the El Niño weather pattern, which can bring heavy rains that damage crops, the severe heat wave in Europe further impacting food production, and global conflicts. The war in the Middle East has seen the price of fertiliser used by Australian farmers soar and has seen the price of petrol and diesel increase significantly, and the re-escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine may also have an impact.

Here are the four grocery items that look set to increase in price in 2026.

1. Seafood

Tinned fish is one of the most affordable pantry staples, but could be impacted by increasing seafood prices due to the warming waters caused by El Niño which is impacting fish populations and distribution. Fish oil prices have also risen as a result.

Rabobank Research reports major impacts on Peruvian anchovy, Chilean jack mackerel and other small pelagic species off Peru and Chile. Tuna has also been significantly impacted, in particular skipjack and yellowfin in waters off Mexico, Ecuador and Peru.

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“The El Niño forecast to peak during the November 2026 to January 2027 fishing season in Peru, expectations for future supply remain constrained. Prices have already reacted sharply,” the report states.

“Fish meal prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, while fish oil prices have risen more than threefold since July 2025.”

2. Coffee

It has been a rough few years for coffee lovers with the price of all coffee products soaring between 2021 and 2027 after major coffee growing regions in Brazil experienced severe frost and then an intense drought, destroying millions of coffee trees and kicking of a prolonged global shortage.

RaboResearch senior food analyst Michael Harvey has told nine.com.au there is more pain to come, with coffee markets already starting to price in an El Niño risk premium due to the chance of heavy rain that can damage crops.

Robusta is more exposed, RaboResearch revealed. Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, together with Indonesia and India, accounts for the majority of global robusta supply. Arabica is also being impacted by above-average temperatures.

“As a result, coffee prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to reservoir levels in Vietnam, rainfall patterns in Indonesia, and the development of flowering conditions across Brazil in the coming months,” the report states.

3. Cocoa

While global cocoa prices have stabilised over the past 12 months, Harvey warned the situation remains unpredictable, particularly when the increased cost of production, including transport, is factored in.

“It’s just volatile at the moment, and there is some risk that we see a re-escalation, but it’s not what we’re saying at the moment,” Harvey said.

Global cocoa production is largely in West Africa which accounts for 70 per cent of global supplies and is usually negatively affected by El Niño, Rabobank reports.

“At the time of writing, the recent transition to an active El Niño alongside its expected strength toward the tail end of the year has allowed for a significant risk premium in the cocoa market,” the report states.

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“While the production impact of El Niño emerges with a lag of several months, price impacts can materialise much sooner, as market participants closely monitor evolving weather conditions, assess potential production risks, and adjust risk premiums accordingly.”

4. Grains

“The war between Russia and Ukraine has re-escalated and that adds challenges and price risk around the cost of grain because they’re such a big supplier,” Harvey has warned.

This could potentially impact the cost of tinned chickpeas, lentils and kidney beans in Australia.

Then there is the impact of El Niño which Harvey said will bring rain that will benefit some growing regions such as Argentina which produces corn and soybean crops.

However Australia “sits firmly in the firing line of El Niño”.

This is expected to affect wheat, barley, and canola yields, and with the added problem of reduced fertiliser rates due to soaring fertiliser costs for Australian farmers, all eyes are on harvest time in October and November.

“Given Australia’s role as one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, production losses there can have an outsized impact on global grain trade flows and regional prices,” the report added.