Interest rates live updates: Fifth dose of pain set to crush millions of Aussies, lone voice tips RBA reprieve

On its own, marginally above-average inflation data just a month after a hike may not have been enough to spark such certain expectations of another increase.

But comments from senior RBA officials before last week’s inflation drop had signalled the central bank was entirely prepared to hike rates for a fifth time this year.

For example, this was assistant governor Sarah Hunter when asked on 60 Minutes whether enough had been done to tame inflation before last week’s data:

“It is hard. Unfortunately, not quite yet. Obviously, the board have put through four rate hikes this year to keep on tackling the challenge. So not quite yet, but … higher interest rates will work.”

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said this on October 21:

“We are beginning to see some signs that some people in the community are not sure if we’re going to bring inflation back into target at all, or certainly not for an extended period … That is the central banker’s nightmare.”

And Bullock said this on Friday, after the inflation figures:

“I recognise that higher interest rates can be difficult, particularly for households with mortgages who are also facing cost-of-living pressures. But we can’t allow high inflation to persist.

“High inflation hurts everyone. It means higher grocery costs, higher rent, and higher electricity bills. It makes everyone’s pay packets and savings worth less – and it particularly hurts people with lower incomes and little savings.”

Combined with the higher inflation data, it paints the picture of a central bank that is sick and tired of inflation being too high, and is ready and willing to hike rates again.

There are a few reasons almost everyone is expecting a rate hike today.

First and foremost: inflation.

It’s just too high, and has been for far too long.

Last week’s headline CPI figure was only marginally higher than expected (4.3 per cent instead of 4.2 per cent) and the crucial trimmed mean was in line with forecasts at 3.6 per cent.

But both are well beyond the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target range.

Indeed, only twice in the last four and a half years has core inflation sat inside the target band, and then only just at 2.8 and 2.9 per cent.

The headline figure, meanwhile, has been 3 per cent or higher since June 2021, aside from a nine-month reprieve between September 2024 and June 2025.

Then there’s what the RBA has been saying – more on that in our next post.

We’ll get into all the doom and gloom of today soon enough, but for now, let’s stick to the glimmers of hope.

While economists and traders widely expect a hike today, the RBA isn’t the only bank that has entered a meeting with an increase heavily expected recently.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its own monetary policy roundtable but, rather than handing down higher interest rates as expected, it opted for a hold.

It wasn’t all good news – the RBNZ said it still expects to have to hike later in the year, and even warned about the risk of an abrupt global downturn.

But it does show that market expectations aren’t the be all and end all. Sometimes, surprises do happen.

If you’ve followed along with our interest rates coverage before, you’ll know these days have a regular schedule.

The RBA will release its decision at 2.30pm (AEDT).

This month, it will also publish its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy – effectively its snapshot of how the economy is tracking along, including some important forecasts about inflation, productivity, unemployment, GDP growth and so on – at the same time.

Governor Michele Bullock will hold her regular post-meeting press conference at 3.30pm.

The one difference today is when we can expect to hear from the treasurer.

Jim Chalmers usually stands up for a press conference on rates at about 3pm. Of course, today there’s a rather popular horse race that starts at that time, so we’re expecting Chalmers to speak around 10 minutes later than usual.

Speaking of the races, you can follow our Melbourne Cup live blog right here.

Good morning and welcome to nine.com.au’s live coverage of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November interest rates decision.

The expected outcome of today’s meeting is hardly a secret; it’s been hard to miss the headlines full of economists, analysts and banks’ predictions that Governor Michele Bullock and her board will hike interest rates for the fifth time this year.

If those forecasts prove accurate, it would take the official cash rate target up to 4.85 per cent.

It hasn’t been that high since late 2008.

Join us as we bring you all the build-up to the decision at 2.30pm (AEDT), followed by reaction from around the country.