Federal budget 2026 live updates jim chalmers latest politics news headline 20260512 p5zvv7.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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AS IT HAPPENED: Treasurer Jim Chalmers hands down federal budget, 'most important in decades'; More than 13 million to get $250 tax bonus; Razor blade taken to negative gearing and CGT discount

Eleanor Wilson and Patrick Brischetto

Updated . First published

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What you need to know

Hello and welcome to our live rolling coverage of the 2026 federal budget.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has handed down a federal budget which he is touting as the most significant of the 21st century, as he and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attempt to thread a needle that entwines cost of living support, tax reform and better local resilience – all without making already-bad inflation even worse.

WINNERS AND LOSERS: What's in it for you

READ MORE: More than 13 million Aussies to get $250 tax bonus

READ MORE: Chalmers takes a razor blade to negative gearing and CGT discount

READ MORE: What's on offer for every generation

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Immigration 35,000 higher than expected

Jorge Branco

There will be 35,000 more migrants in Australia this financial year than previously expected, driven by fewer foreigners on temporary visas leaving, according to the budget papers.

The latest figures put net overseas migration at 295,000 in 2025-26 and 245,000 in 2026-27, up from last year's estimates of 260,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2026-27.

The budget says policy changes will put "downward pressure" on the figures.

"Net overseas migration (NOM) has declined by around 45 per cent from its peak in 2022-23 and is forecast to continue declining through to 2027-28," the papers say.

"NOM is forecast to be moderately higher than previously expected in 2025-26 and 2026-27, which reflects that migrants on temporary visas are departing Australia at lower rates than in the past.

"Arrivals of New Zealand citizens are also expected to remain strong, reflecting Australia's relatively favourable labour market conditions."

Opposition to fight negative gearing and CGT changes

Jorge Branco

The opposition will support the Working Australians Tax Offset but fight against changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.

Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson quickly pledged to support the change set to put $250 a year extra in 13.3 million working Australians' pockets.

But he said the opposition was "resolute and clear" in its decision to oppose the government's tax reforms targeted at housing, saying they were "built on a house of broken trust".

"These measures go to the heart of the trust people have in the government, the treasurer himself, because they went to the last election saying they wouldn't do precisely these things," Wilson said.

"But more importantly, it won't even deliver the outcome that they're claiming. How can you introduce new taxes that are going to hit small businesses, that are going to hit young Australians who are saving and investing their first home deposit and increasing rents and also building fewer houses?"

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Housing funding welcome but won't solve 'Rubiks cube' of problems

Adam Vidler

A major urban consultancy says the budget's measures to ease the housing crisis are welcome, but has warned further challenges lie ahead.

Urbis partner and housing sector lead Mark Dawson said the budget's $2 billion cash injection did not address the chronic compromise affecting housing – feasibility and the intersecting challenges of delivery.

"This is welcome movement for a system that's stuck and it's good to see funding targeted at unlocking feasible, more affordable homes. It is a small cog in a big machine and will need to cut through the delays and stop-start decisions of a fragmented approvals system," Dawson said.

"Housing feasibility is like a Rubik's cube, not a single switch. The Budget is turning more than one face, and that matters.

"But if approvals, infrastructure, build cost and financing don't move together, the bottleneck just shifts and the pipeline stays stuck."

Urbis chief economist Richard Gibbs said the reforms did not amount to "systemic change".

"It may increase commencements – but it's only the tip of the iceberg in relation to enabling infrastructure," he said.

"It doesn't talk to schools, hospitals, or other community infrastructure required by families, especially if you're moving them into a new residential greenfield development."

Urbis also welcomed the changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing.

'Are we done with the lies now?'

Jorge Branco

Chalmers has again been forced to defend his credibility in a tough interview with 9News political editor Charles Croucher.

Addressing promises made at the last election to not make changes to negative gearing or capital gains tax, the treasurer is asked bluntly: "Are we done with the lies now?"

Chalmers says those statements reflected the government's overwhelming focus on supply and it has "come to a different view" since then.

He says problems with tax policy and the housing market have become "increasingly clear" and too many young people have been locked out of housing.

Asked again straight out if he and the prime minister lied to the country, Chalmers says the comments "reflected our position at the time".

"I think it's appropriate that when a government comes to a different view, as governments do from time to time, that they explain why, and that's what we're doing."

Explained: What happens to rents, house prices and supply

Jorge Branco

The housing reforms are expected to increase rents less than $2 a week for the average renter, according to the budget papers.

They are also expected to result in 35,000 fewer new homes being built across the next decade. However, the government says that figure will be more than offset by 65,000 new homes supported under the Local Infrastructure Fund.

Treasury modelling suggests prices will grow "2 per cent less over a couple of years" compared to if the changes hadn't been introduced.

"The combination of the government's policies in this budget will add to housing supply, which will exert downward pressure on rents over time," the budget says.

These figures analyse the direct effects of the policies rather than predicting what real-world numbers might end up being.

Housing prices will continue to grow, just at a slower pace

Eleanor Wilson

The treasurer expects sweeping tax reforms made in tonight's budget will slow the pace of house price growth, but it will continue to trend upwards.

"In the Treasury modelling that we've released alongside the budget, prices will continue to grow at about 2 per cent slower on a median house. That's about $19,000," Chalmers told 7.30.

Pre-budget modelling suggested housing prices would grow by 2.5 per cent

The government's fiscal strategy won't target specific brackets, he said.

"What we're trying to do is to make sure that there are more affordable options for people to buy, particularly people who are buying their first home."

Chalmers' dodges 'broken promises' question

Eleanor Wilson

As expected, Chalmers has been asked to admit the government broke its election promise on negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.

Chalmers acknowledged the government had changed its tune, but dodged calling it a broken promise.

"I acknowledge that the government has come to some different views about some really important policy areas," he told the ABC's 7.30.

"We know that that invites an element of political risk. Obviously, these changes have been contentious for some time, and so you asked me before, would I acknowledge that we've come to this different view we have, but we've come to this.

"It was about broken problems. Well, we've come to this different view for very good reasons."

Major tax changes made in "recent weeks", treasurer admits

Eleanor Wilson

The federal government decided to make crucial tax changes to CGT and negative gearing in "recent weeks", Treasurer Jim Chalmers says in his first budget interview with the ABC's Sarah Ferguson.

"The decision was taken in recent weeks, it was taken relatively late in the budget process," Chalmers said.

"We came to the conclusion that the focus on [housing] supply was not enough to deal with some of these intergenerational issues."

Optimistic budget predictions doing 'heavy lifting'

Eleanor Wilson

The budget rests on several "best case" financial scenarios that may not represent reality, Nine Finance Editor Chris Kohler argues.

"I just had it put to me that there's some heroic assumptions in this budget, doing a lot of heavy lifting," Kohler said.

"Whether it's the idea that rents will only increase $2 a week, or whether it's the idea that CPI is going to halve, I mean there's a lot going on in here that could be probed pretty closely.

"What does [Chalmers] say to that sort of thing? That this is being treated as a base case, but really a lot of people may say it's a best case scenario."

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