Kiwis in Australia could decide New Zealand election result
Votes cast by Kiwis living in Australia are shaping to play a major role in deciding the result of Saturday’s election in New Zealand.
About 126,000 New Zealanders living overseas are eligible to vote in the non-compulsory ballot, with about 75 per cent in Australia, according to figures from the country’s Electoral Commission.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is fighting to secure a second term in Saturday’s election. AP Photo/Brett Phibbs
The number of votes cast by expats has grown in recent New Zealand elections.
Ahead of this year’s poll, about 33,000 more overseas voters have registered than three years ago.
Fiona Barker, head of politics and international studies at the University of Wellington, told nine.com.au that research shows most of the 80,000 New Zealanders living in Australia are expected to cast their vote.
“The role of New Zealanders in Australia is many times more consequential than those in other parts of the world,” she said.
Neck-and-neck contest
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, of the National Party, is battling to secure a second term in a contest defined by the soaring high cost of living, lack of affordable housing, straining health services, and a weakening jobs market.
The main challenger to Luxon’s centre-right coalition government is the centre-left bloc headed by Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins.
Minor parties in New Zealand have a big say in who governs the country.
They include New Zealand First, led by the current Foreign Minister Winston Peters, and the Greens who had 15 MPs elected in the 2023 election.
The main parties in New Zealand are likely to depend on support from minor parties after Saturday’s election. Getty
Opinion polls released this week showed the election too close to call.
The 1News Verian voter survey released on Tuesday put the National Party at 30 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Greens at 16 per cent.
Barker says the centrist Opportunity Party could be left holding the balance of power if it clinches more than 5 per cent of the party vote – the minimum required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat under New Zealand’s electoral rules.
New Zealand Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins has put the cost of living at the front of his party’s campaign. Phil Walter
Kiwis flock to Australia
The sluggish economy and lack of opportunity for young people has dominated the New Zealand election campaign.
About 145,000 Kiwis have moved to Australia over the past years seeking a better life, and whoever wins Saturday’s election faces a hard job in luring them back.
Among them are former prime minister Jacinda Ardern. The ex-Labour leader was appointed as a “professor of practice” at Sydney University after she and her husband bought a home on the city’s Northern Beaches.
The shift by New Zealanders to settle overseas accelerated this year.
Data from Stats NZ estimates about 120,000 more citizens left in the three years to August 2026 than returned.
Expat New Zealanders have largely backed centre-left parties, particularly the Greens, driven by a large turnout of young voters.
Barker says if that trend continues on Saturday it would impact the chances of the National Party-led coalition being returned to power.
“Younger people historically lead the net migration from New Zealand to Australia, but in recent years we’ve seen more family units,” she said.
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