Israel election as it happened: Netanyahu faces fight to stay in power amid huge voter turnout

We're ending our coverage of the Israeli election, with the result too close to call.

New polls from the country’s three major TV stations are now suggesting a slight increase in support for Netanyahu but still leaving him short of a governing majority after a voter turnout of 77 per cent, the highest since 1999.

The prime minister's main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, appears short of outright majority.

Polls show both are heading for about 51 seats in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset.

A candidate needs 61 parliamentary seats to form a majority coalition government.

Arab-led parties won the remaining 18 seats, the exit polls suggested.

Counting has officially begun of votes, but could take days to complete. 

Gadi Eisenkot has said Israelis have voted for change but stopped short of claiming victory.

The Yashar leader was speaking from his party’s HQ in Tel Aviv surrounded by jubilant supporters.

“We have made history! The public has voted for change. The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust,” he said.

“The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu continuing to serve as prime minister of Israel.“

But he cautioned so far early projected results were “only exit polls, and we need to wait for final results”.

They show Eisenkot’s voting bloc only holds a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition.

Eisenkot said if he wins, he would act with “all our power to establish a government,” and that his party intends to represent all Israelis.

One survey shows Israeli opposition voters back the idea of a government coalition involving Arab parties - a prospect both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have demurred.

The Hebrew University’s aChord Centre showed 61 per cent of opposition voters wanted Eisenkot’s Yashar party to form a government with Arab party Raam.

That compares to 20 per cent who favoured another round of elections, 12 per cent who backed a rotation government with Netanyahu, and 7 per cent who wanted a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties.

Arab parties together are set to snare up to 18 seats in the next Knesset, driven by a surge in the usually tepid vote of Arab Israelis, who make up about 20 per cent of the population.

Donald Trump doesn’t like backing “losers”, leaving Vice President JD Vance to make the public endorsements for fellow populist or far-right leaders facing poor election odds.

But he put out a strong late endorsement for Benjamin Netanyahu, who exit polls indicate is facing a drastic loss of support.

CNN analyst Kevin Liptak said Trump would be unhappy that his public backing didn’t get Netanyahu across the line - though of course, the incumbent still holds a chance of forming a governing coalition in the coming days and weeks.

But beside’s Trump’s personal distaste for failed candidates, Liptak said Netanyahu’s political demise wouldn’t be a cause of dismay for the administration.

“I think that that will land in some White House offices somewhat happily,” he said.

“(Netanyahu) has a way of getting under the skin of American presidents.“

The same is true for Trump, who reportedly clashed with Netanyahu over Israel’s ongoing military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon as the White House tried to forge a peace with Iran.

A group of October 7 survivors, former hostages, and bereaved have called again for a commission of enquiring into the Hamas assault, saying the votes clearly show widespread backing.

The October Council released a statement in the wake of the polls this morning, the Times of Israel reported.

“The citizens of Israel have had their say, and now it is time for the elected officials to do what is required of them,” the statement read.

“We call upon all party leaders and members of Knesset who committed to the establishment of a state commission of inquiry to stand together, even before the new Knesset is sworn in — and pledge that on the first day of its term, they will work for the establishment of a state commission, without delay and unconditionally.“

Netanyahu has repeatedly resisted convening such a commission, but opponent Eisenkot has made it a pillar of his campaign.

Israel’s voter turnout is its highest this century, the country’s Central Elections Committee has confirmed.

So far, 77.7 per cent of voters have taken part in the election, the highest level since 1999, and not far short of the record 1988 vote of 79.7 per cent.

This isn’t counting the postal votes of deployed soldiers, reservists, and international officials, who are allowed the only exemptions to Israel’s in-person voting rule.

An exit poll from Israel’s Channel 12 suggests 11 parties will form Israel’s next parliament.

The broadcaster forecast 24 seats for Netanyahu’s Likud party, and 22 for Eisenkot’s Yashar.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s Together part was projected to win 12.

But the next highest on the list was the Arab Israeli party Joint List, with a forecast 11 seats.

Overall, Arab parties were forecast to hold 18 seats in the new Knesset, a new record for the bloc, and up from 10 in the previous government.

But both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out forming a coalition with the faction.

“We can say with confidence: we sent the fascist right-wing government to the dustbin of history,” Joint List said in a statement.

Channel 12 estimated opposition parties would snare 52 seats, compared to 50 for the current governing coalition.

CNN exit polls indicate Netanyahu’s bloc has lost its Knesset majority, but that there’s no simple path to government for anybody.

The US outlet projected Netanyahu’s current coalition would drop from 68 to 50 seats, with his own Likud party remaining the country’s largest at 25 seats.

A government needs to hold at least 61 seats.

Oppoosition parties are projected to hold 71 seats on paper, but they are not as tightly aligned as Netanyahu’s bloc.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is set to gain 22 seats based on exit polls.

These projections could shift as vote counting gets underway.

Liberal Senator and former ambassador to Israel Dave Sharma says the high Arab voter turnout for the election overnight could “augur badly” for Netanyahu, but said the incumbent wasn’t out of the running yet.

And even if Netanyahu is ousted, there’s no indication yet he won’t angle for a return to high office, as he’s done previously.

“The question will be for his party, Likud, is will they stick with him as leader,” Sharma told Today, on the question of what would happen if Israel anoints a new prime minister.

He said it would depend on the stability of any hypothetical new coalition government.

In any case, he said, Israel will likely be waiting weeks for the question of who leads the next Knesset to be settled.

But on security issues, Sharma said, Netanyahu and his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, were largely aligned - including on Gaza and Iran.

“Really the big point of difference between the two is domestic,” Sharma said.

Eisenkot wants an inquiry into the security failures that led to the October 7 Hamas attacks, and an end to the exemption on national service for Ultra-Orthodox Israelis, initiatives Netanyahu has resisted.

Exit polls, unsurprisingly, indicate no clear winner in the election, both CNN and Associated Press have reported.

Exit polls are not official results, of course, but the multipolar Knesset was always highly unlikely to deliver a majority government.

This will set the stage for coalition jockeying - an art of which Netanyahu is an acknowledged master.

Don’t count the great survivor of Israel’s politics out yet.