‘I don’t understand it’: Ugly fallout to NSW pick after shock axing

When the 2026 season kicked off, nobody could have predicted Knights back-rower Dylan Lucas would be making his State of Origin debut.

That’s no knock on Lucas - he’s a quality young player on the rise and was a rare shining light for Newcastle in a wooden spoon year.

In last year’s Origin series, the three NSW edge forwards used were Liam Martin, Angus Crichton and Hudson Young.

Crichton and Young played for the Kangaroos in the year-end Ashes series, while Martin has had a disrupted period due to injury.

In game one this year, Haumole Olakau’atu was a no-brainer selection after his red-hot form at club level for the Sea Eagles.

Aside from those four men, the likes of Jacob Preston and Keaon Koloamatangi were widely thought to be ahead of Lucas in the pecking order.

Even players like Samuela Fainu, Jack Williams, Jackson Ford, Teig Wilton and Josh Curran probably came into this season with higher hopes of a Blues call-up.

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Yet, here we are.

Olakau’atu played 67 minutes for the Blues in their comeback win, with Lucas the non-playing reserve, gaining valuable experience for the future.

But fast-forward to Tuesday morning and there wasn’t a person involved in rugby league who foresaw Laurie Daley swapping the pair by axing Olakau’atu and promoting Lucas to the starting side for his Origin debut. Phil Gould was particularly scathing of the change, saying “I don’t understand it”.

Even Lucas himself was in the dark until an hour before the team went public and the fallout since has been telling, with critics lining up to hammer the selectors’ decision. The Knights young gun is unwittingly the face of a significant controversy.

“I had no idea - when he [Daley] called me through the week, he just told me he would be naming a squad and I found out this morning,” Lucas told media.

“I was super grateful to be here for the game one. To get the news this morning, I’m so excited and can’t wait to get out there ... it’s a bit of a pinch me moment.”

This is again no knock on Lucas or his talent.

Since his early days playing in the Illawarra junior rep system before making the move to Newcastle, the 25-year-old has always had potential and has undoubtedly shown glimpses of it since his NRL debut three years ago.

This season, the Knights gun has scored seven tries in 11 appearances, averaging more than 120 run metres and 37 tackles per game, taking full advantage of running outside Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown for an in-form outfit.

“He’s elevated himself and the thing is with Dylan is that he started in the centres, so he can play there, back-row or in the middle,” Andrew Johns said on Nine’s Freddy and The Eighth last week, prior to the team being announced.

But the head-scratching part of Lucas’ selection isn’t about him - it’s about the man he’s replacing when the Blues look to wrap up the series at the MCG.

Nobody would argue that Olakau’atu has been the form back-rower of the competition this year and, alongside Blues teammate Tolu Koula, Manly’s best performer.

He’s averaged 180 run metres per game, made seven linebreaks, scored four tries, produced 10 offloads and operated at 96 per cent tackle efficiency in 11 games.

In the series opener at Accor Stadium last month, Olakau’atu had 10 runs for 97 metres - the most of any Blues forward in rainy conditions.

Even taking statistics out of it, Olakau’atu passes the eye test. Opposition players can’t tackle him and certainly don’t enjoy being tackled by him.

Yet according to Daley, the decision to promote Lucas and drop Olakau’atu was based around form and for the best interests of the NSW team.

“Always difficult to have those chats, but you’ve just got to make a decision based on the best interests of the team and what the team needs,” the coach said.

“It’s one of those hard calls you have to make. We wanted to give Dyl a run in this game and I’m sure he will do well.”

There was plenty of conjecture on social media once the team was confirmed by Daley - which isn’t uncommon whenever Origin time rolls around.

Gould vocalised it on his podcast and reiterated countless times how he can’t fathom Daley opting to select Lucas over Olakau’atu at this stage.

“I cannot understand the Haumole decision,” the former Blues coach said on Wide World of Sports’ Six Tackles With Gus.

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“He’s the best right back-rower in the game. I don’t understand it and I particularly don’t understand replacing him with a left-sided player.

“It’s just not as easy to pick a kid on debut. I don’t understand it, to be honest.

“Don’t get me wrong, I love Dylan Lucas as a player and he’s certainly Origin-class and potential and he will get the chance to prove himself in this game, but I think it would be grossly unfair to play him on the right side.

“I’m not sure about the balance of the team and I cannot understand how Haumole Olakau’atu isn’t in the best 13 players for NSW ... it shocks me greatly.”

The decision could prove to be a masterstroke by full-time next Wednesday, but as it stands, bringing the Newcastle star in over Olakau’atu feels very odd.

Again, not because of Lucas’ talent - but because it doesn’t make a lot of sense.