Matthew Lloyd names his four teams that can win the premiership this season, with Collingwood out of the mix

Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd believes there are only four teams who can win the premiership this year, based on what we have seen in the opening two months of the season.

Those teams are Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle and reigning premiers Brisbane.

On the flip side, that means he is, at this stage, putting a line through last year's runner-up Geelong, a pre-season flag fancy in Gold Coast, the experienced Collingwood and last year's minor premiers Adelaide, among others.

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Heading into round eight, Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle made up the top three spots on the ladder, and they have separated themselves from the pack by four points.

The Dockers picked up an impressive win on Friday night, coming from 26 points down to beat the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, while the Hawks played out a draw against Collingwood.

Brisbane, meanwhile, sit sixth with four wins and three losses and have had a slightly slower start to the season coming off the premiership, though it's hard to doubt their credentials.

Speaking before they played the Bulldogs on Friday night, Lloyd said he was a big fan of the Dockers.

"I think there's only about four teams good enough to win it (the flag) this year, and they're one of them, Fremantle," Lloyd told 3AW.

"It is Brisbane, Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle. They're the best four in it. Gold Coast is a watch now."

When asked if he thought Collingwood could do some damage in September, Lloyd said: "I don't think so."

"Damage, I think they could win one, maybe two finals, but I don't think they're any better than that," he said.

"I'm sure others might disagree with me."

Brownlow Medallist Jimmy Bartel agreed with Lloyd's quartet of contenders.

"I'm not disagreeing with you. I think Collingwood can do some damage because they are so well drilled and organised," Bartel said.

"They are timing their run to be fresher and better than last year.

"We spoke to Steele Sidebottom on Thursday and he said, 'Look, we were 15-2 (last year) and we fell off a cliff. We're trying to avoid that again'."

The Magpies ultimately lost out on the minor premiership in 2025, but still hosted a preliminary final, before being taken down by the Lions.

They are once again attempting to win a premiership with what would be the oldest list in VFL/AFL history to do so.

Brisbane take on the struggling Essendon at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, while Sydney host the fast-starting Melbourne on Sunday at the SCG.

Fremantle and Hawthorn, meanwhile, will face off next Thursday night at Optus Stadium in a battle between Lloyd's contenders.

Lloyd performed a similar exercise in June of 2025, correctly listing grand finalists Brisbane and Geelong among his three teams that could win the flag.