The bad news no Aussie coffer lover wants to hear
Updated . First published
Your morning caffeine hit could be about to get a lot more expensive due to a "perfect storm" of low coffee bean stocks in Australia and rising demand.
Industry experts warn this could further increase the cost of your brew in 2026, despite growing regions expecting to have a much-improved harvest later this year.
Gavin Northey, Associate Professor at the Department of Marketing at Griffith University, told nine.com.au Australia is "particularly vulnerable to supply side shocks, given Australia imports 90 per cent of coffee".
Low coffee bean stocks in Australia has sparked concerns. Nine
"Over the past two years, wholesale coffee prices have been off the chart," Northey said.
"In December 2024, the price of coffee broke through a ceiling that hadn't been touched since 1977.
"By February 2025, it was at a all-time high. Prices have pulled back a little, but they are still very high."
At Coles and Woolworths, Aussie shoppers can purchase coffee beans for as little as $30 per kilo or as much as $56 per kilo. Prices can depend on quality, special promotions and availability, as well as customer preferences.
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The cost of coffee beans and barista-made coffee has soared in recent years. Nine
AllPress Espresso reports one of the "clearest signals of tight supply is global certified warehouse stocks, currently sitting around 400,000 bags".
"For context, healthy stock levels are typically one to two million bags," the site stated.
"Anything below one million is considered tight."
US tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical upheaval have also "severely impacted global supply levels".
Global coffee supplies have been severely impacted by climate issues in growing regions in Brazil and Vietnam from 2021 until 2024, however in 2026, the harvest in Brazil is expected to increase by 25 per cent.
Northey said that while this has pushed "coffee futures" down around 18 per cent, it will take some time for any of that to flow through to a reduction in retail prices and the cost of barista-made coffee from your local cafe.
The average cost of a barista-made coffee in Australia as of early 2026 is approximately $5.50 to $6.50.
This followed a 15.69 per cent increase in the cost of takeaway coffee prices between 2023 and 2025, according to Compare the Market.
Global coffee supplies have been severely impacted by climate issues in growing regions. Nine
While a standard small coffee often starts around $5, $6 has become the new normal in major cities like Melbourne, with prices in Sydney and Perth often reaching $6.50, particularly for larger sizes or premium dairy alternatives.
The flow on effect of reduced coffee prices is also being impacted by the US-Iran conflict, Northey explained, "because now transport, energy, insurance and freight costs are all increasing".
Coffee prices are also being impacted by transport, energy, insurance and freight costs. Nine
Australia's vulnerability when it comes to coffee bean supplies is "made worse given our dollar will possibly weaken if the Middle East conflict continues, making imports even pricier".
"But if things calm down and Brazil's harvest is as healthy as the forecasts suggest, maybe by the end of the year, coffee will taste that little bit sweeter (i.e. cheaper) for the average Australian consumer," Northey added.
Forecasts suggest a better coffee growing season in 2026. Nine
However this is hard to predict, and coffee price analysts remain cautious.
Trading Economics forecasts coffee prices stabilising rather than falling, due to the continuing volatility.
"The 2026 coffee market outlook indicates a structural, long-term shift toward higher prices, rather than a temporary spike, due to compounding supply chain issues, climate volatility, and rising demand, despite expected increases in production," they state.
Trading Economics forecasts coffee prices stabilising rather than falling. Nine
"While Brazil expects a record 2026/27 harvest and Vietnam increases output, structural deficits and low global stocks are expected to keep prices for both Arabica and Robusta beans elevated above historical lows."
They further predict a continuing shift from Arabica to Robusta coffee beans due to lower costs.
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