Deepening El Nino raises bushfire risk for millions of people

Weather forecasters are warning eastern Australia is entering a “potentially dangerous” period as the El Nino climate pattern grows in strength.

Two weeks into spring and on the back of an exceptionally dry winter, ground conditions are becoming a growing bushfire risk, reports Weatherzone.

Capital cities and regional towns recorded below-average rainfall during the three winter months, driven by a strengthening El Nino.

Meteorologists say the climate patten weakens the trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards eastern Australia from the tropical Pacific Ocean.

To date, less than a millimetre of rain has fallen on Brisbane, while Sydney has recorded just 6.2mm.

It’s a similar story away from the capital cities.

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Only 9.8mm of rainfall was recorded across the whole of winter in Rockhampton in Queensland’s Capricornia district.

Bega on the NSW South Coast had a desperately dry winter, with only 26.6mm of rain from June to August.

Melbourne has also been relatively dry in September, recording 12.6mm of rain, but if follows a winter that had slightly above-average rainfall.

The latest reading of the Relative Nino3.4 Index – which shows how unusually warm or cool the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is – reveals the El Nino system is far from weakening.

The latest reading taken during the week ending September 13 was 2.51. The strongest recorded was 2.65.

October is forecast to be drier than usual across most parts of eastern Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The good news is the outlook starts to change in November, when damper weather is expected.

Warm seas off Australia could also counter El Nino’s drying effect in spring by providing the atmosphere with moist air from sea evaporation.

But millions of people will be hoping for significant rain season soon before the ground becomes a tinderbox.