Australia just hit a grim weather milestone. Last time it did, 75 people died

Australia has hit an ominous weather milestone, matching climate conditions last seen ahead of one of its worst natural disasters.

In February 1983, Ash Wednesday bushfires ripped through Victoria and South Australia, killing 75 people and destroying thousands of homes.

Now, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which tracks atmospheric changes across the Pacific Ocean - has plunged to -29.1, its lowest reading since that tragic month.

With the world’s oceans hotter than at any point on record, experts are paying attention.

The numbers do not necessarily mean another Ash Wednesday is coming.

But they raise an uncomfortable question as summer approaches: could history repeat?

Back in 1983, the warning signs were everywhere.

Severe drought stripped Victoria of rainfall, drying dams, creeks, and valley vegetation as summer rain plummeted 75 per cent below average.

In Victoria alone, 2080 homes were destroyed, and 47 people were killed.

So how close are we to those conditions now?

University of Tasmania fire scientist Professor David Bowman says that a single SOI reading cannot predict the full picture, as the link between El Nino and bushfires varies by region.

That said, he isn’t brushing off the numbers.

Bowman warned that “a super El Nino when the planetary air and ocean temperatures are historically extreme is a very big warning light”.

One major difference between 1983 and today is also important.

Much of the country has had years of rain, leaving behind dense vegetation.

That can become a serious fire hazard if intense heat dries it out.

“The coming fire season has no simple historical parallels like 1983 or 2009 and 2019-20.

“Drought is less of a factor in areas most likely affected by El Nino this season, but the dense fuels from years of rain are a very big hazard factor”.

Bowman is particularly concerned about what can happen if extreme heat suddenly dries those fuels.

“My biggest fear is ‘flash droughts’ associated with baking heatwaves which can take landscapes from zero to 100 in days,” he warned, adding that dense growth following recent fires increases the risk.

“If these fuels dry out and burn under catastrophic weather conditions, we will see extremely dangerous fire behaviours.”

Then there’s what is happening offshore.

Global ocean temperatures have reached their highest level on record, hitting 21.1 degrees and narrowly surpassing the previous record set in March 2024.

Former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner and now volunteer firefighter Greg Mullins said he was watching that heat with “real concern”.

Mullins stressed the SOI figure alone does not make a catastrophic fire season inevitable.

“A bad fire season needs more than a strong SOI reading. You need a landscape with plenty of vegetation growth that’s dried out, hot weather, wind and an ignition source like dry lightning.”

He said climate pollution and El Nino stack the odds toward more dangerous fires, but there’s no guarantee.

His biggest concern, however, lies further ahead.

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“What actually worries me most is not this summer, but the next one, the summer of 2027-28, because 2027 is almost certain to set temperature records,” he said.

“That is why we must make sure that we’re using this time to prepare for the return of possibly serious fires, but also to keep cutting the pollution driving worsening climate disasters.”