Can Donald Trump rig the midterm elections? It’s not as easy as it seems
Ever since 2016, Donald Trump has questioned the validity of just about every election that he or his Republican party did not win.
And with the Department of Justice under his thumb and the US military under his control, there are fears Trump will seek to use his power to change the midterm election results.
A father and son dressed as crayons urging people to vote on Halloween in Anchorage, Alaska. AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson
So far most of his attempts to alter the outcome have not been successful.
On Monday evening the Supreme Court knocked back a request from the Trump administration to force California to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots.
The Department of Justice had argued the 20,000 ballots may have been cast by non-citizens. Thus far, there is no evidence that any of the 20,000 ballots were cast illegally.
But there are 23 million registered voters in California, and Democrats are predicted to win the state in a landslide on Tuesday.
“The President of the United States has a loose grip on the law and an even looser grip on reality,” California Attorney-General Rob Bonta said.
“As I’ve said many times, the only election Donald Trump recognises as valid is one where he wins.
“There is no widespread voter fraud. The federal government has no right to interfere in California’s elections.”
Trump has repeatedly accused California of voter fraud, in large part because of their glacially slow counting process.
But this is largely because everybody in California votes with a postal ballot.
In order for a ballot to be counted, the signature on the envelope needs to match with the signature in the database. It takes a long time to do that 23 million times.
American elections are deeply complicated in large part because there is no equivalent to the Australian Electoral Commission there.
Voters walk to a polling precinct in Tampa, Florida. AP Photo/Octavio Jones
Instead, elections are administered county-by-county under state laws.
The federal government has no power to stop an elected politician taking office. The task of certifying election results is done at the state level.
That is why the Trump administration sued the state of Alaska to stop them certifying any result that Republican Senator Dan Sullivan did not win.
The Trump administration argued that voters would be confused that another candidate on the ballot had the same name as Sullivan.
Trump called for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola to be prosecuted for allegedly co-ordinating to get the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
But it is not a crime to have the same name as another politician, nor is it illegal to convince someone to run for office.
Peltola has denied any involvement in the Sullivan confusion.
A federal judge knocked back the Trump lawsuit on Monday.
The judge's argument was there was no workable way of proving people did not vote for their intended candidate without violating their privacy.
Alaska has preferential voting in any case, so voters could cover their bases by numbering one Dan Sullivan after the other.
There are also fears Trump could deploy ICE agents to polling stations to harass voters or scare them away.
But only citizens can vote in the US, so ICE would have no justifiable reason to be at polling stations.
But the sheer number of early voters has blunted the impact of any potential election day shenanigans.
Vice President JD Vance speaks at a campaign rally in Ohio. Tom Brenner/POOL Getty Images North America via AP
Fifty-five million people have already voted.
And it is estimated that the number of early voters are heavily Democratic.
Historically, Democrats like to vote early and Republicans prefer voting on election day.
So if Trump was intending to scare off voters at the polls, it may do more to scare off those who were backing Republicans anyway.
The other question is whether the existing Congress can refuse to seat newly elected Democrats.
But those fears are unfounded. Members are sworn in before a speaker is chosen after every election, so there is nobody with authority to block an elected politician from taking their seat.
The first polls close at 9am Wednesday AEDT, and the first results will come in soon after.
Democrats are now heavily favoured to reclaim both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Nine.com.au will be giving live updates in our live blog throughout the day.
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