Why the US midterm elections matter for Australians, and everything else to know

On Tuesday, millions of Americans will turn out to vote, but the world’s most famous politician isn’t on the ballot.

So why should Australians care about the midterms if Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot?

In spite of all the pomp and ceremony, most of the power in the United States does not lie with the president.

Instead it is in the hands of 535 people, most of whom are on the ballot in the midterm elections.

And they have the power to decide how the money in the world's biggest treasury is spent, can hamper most of Trump's actions and even remove him from office if they so choose.

Who is on the ballot?

All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for election. Members of Congress serve two-year terms, so they will also be running again in 2028.

Senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered elections. As a result, about a third of senators are on the ballot.

Furthermore, 39 governorships are on the ballot. In most of the biggest states, including California, Texas, New York and Florida, voters will decide who their most powerful statewide politician is.

There are also countless other elections, including state legislatures, local mayors and councils and a litany of other offices.

In Texas, more than a million dollars has been spent on campaigns for the office of railroad commissioner, a surprisingly powerful office.

In Parke County, Indiana, voters will be choosing a new coroner, an elected office in the state.

Voters in Florida can choose representatives on the Mosquito Control Board, and Arizonans will elect a state mine inspector.

In many states, voters will also be electing judges.

For many of these offices, candidates can get elected with far fewer votes than a governor or senator, simply because voters get bored filling out the ballot and leave the lower-profile ones blank.

Who is going to win?

Short of a major polling error, Democrats are looking at a big win on Tuesday.

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They are overwhelmingly favoured to take back the House of Representatives and also the favourites to reclaim the majority in the Senate.

The expected blue wave could wash Republicans out of office in states like Texas, Kansas and Ohio, places normally considered solidly red.

This comes despite billions of dollars being spent to convince people to back Republicans, much of that money coming from billionaires like Elon Musk.

Voters typically back the opposition in midterm elections.

In 1994 and 2010, America rebuked Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama by backing Republicans. The inverse happened for George W. Bush and Donald Trump in 2006 and 2018.

And with Trump's approval rating at dire lows, this midterm is expected to be very good for Democrats.

What will happen if Democrats win?

With control of Congress, Democrats can bring Trump’s legislative agenda to a grinding halt. 

They can stop the president's unauthorised renovation projects in Washington and put money back into the agencies he defunded.

They can also defund Trump’s war with Iran, effectively forcing him to withdraw the Navy from the region. Whether that means the Iranians will reopen the Strait of Hormuz is another matter.

They can also start impeachment proceedings against Trump and other members of his cabinet.

Being successful in removing him from office is unlikely.

Democrats would have to win nearly every Senate seat on the ballot this November to have enough votes for impeachment.

This is technically possible, but it won’t happen.

Democrats could also look for ways to block Trump's power to implement tariffs, which would be good news for Australian exporters.

On an issue no American voter is thinking about, the result would put the biggest AUKUS advocate in a position of substantial power.

If Democrats retake the House, Congressman Joe Courtney will be elevated to chair of the Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces.

If Democrats take the Senate they can also block Trump from making any more judicial appointments.

As a consequence they could deny Trump one of the most lasting achievements a president can make - appointing a Supreme Court justice.

He has already appointed three in his first term, and two other conservative judges are in their late 70s and may be tempted to retire.

If one of the two retires, Democrats may keep the seat vacant until another president is in office in 2029.

What are the seats to watch?

There’s a few big ticket races that will attract a large amount of attention.

The marquee race is the Texas Senate election, where James Talarico has a strong chance of becoming the first Democrat in a generation to win. His opponent Ken Paxton was endorsed by Trump in spite of his many flaws.

Democrats will be hoping to defeat Susan Collins, a Republican senator who has defied the trends in Maine for 30 years.

Republicans see their best pick-up opportunity in Michigan, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed is underperforming other Democrats in the state. El-Sayed would be the first Muslim in the Senate.

Democrats are also eyeing the Senate race in Kansas, where they have not won since 1932. Their candidate Adam Hamilton leads the largest church in the state.

When do results come in?

The first polls close at 9am Wednesday AEDT, and the first results will come in soon after. 

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But because of different closing times and timezones, the results will be staggered throughout Wednesday morning and afternoon Australian time.

By the end of the day the outcome in the Senate and House should be apparent, unless there are far more close elections than usual.

Nine.com.au will be giving live updates in our live blog throughout the day.

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