Why a ‘seismic’ election in a tiny German state has the world talking

There’s a good chance you’d never heard of Saxony-Anhalt before this week.

Yet the “seismic” result of a regional election in one of Germany’s smallest and poorest states has captivated Europe and sparked questions about the state of western democracy.

That’s because a far-right party may be on the cusp of government for the first time since the Nazis, threatening a “firewall” against extremism and leaving many worried about how hard the populist surge will hit other länder and even the national parliament.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the domestic intelligence agency classifies as an extremist group in Saxony-Anhalt and several other states, sailed to a landslide victory on Sunday.

The party talks of “remigration” a politically charged term for the deportation of immigrants. Its leader in a neighbouring state appealed two convictions for knowingly using a Nazi slogan.

AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism and says they’re politically motivated.

Ulrich Siegmund, the anti-migration and Russia-friendly party’s candidate for governor said it had “written history”, claiming a mandate to govern after winning 39 of the state parliament’s 83 seats with about 44 per cent of the vote, based on the latest projections.

In a country of 83 million people, the votes of about 550,000 people in favour of AfD triggered what German political newspaper Der Spiegel called a magnitude 9.0 “political earthquake”. 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s increasingly unpopular Christian Democratic Union slumped to just 17 per cent support.

Merz described the “seismic” impact as “the most serious election defeat that the CDU has had for years, for decades” but insisted he would carry on as leader. 

Queen Mary University of London Professor of Politics Tim Bale said the result was “a bigger deal than it would otherwise be because of Germany's Nazi past”, its importance in the European Union and the AfD’s status as “significantly more extreme and virulently pro-Russian than many of the continent's other far-right parties”.

“The fact that it does best in the former East Germany, which is still struggling economically in many towns and cities, isn't irrelevant but its success also fits a wider pattern of disillusion with mainstream parties that have failed to deliver prosperity and the migration control that some, often pretty xenophobic voters, long for,” the researcher on elections and political parties told nine.com.au.

Exit polls  from Saxony-Anhalt reported by The Conversation found the AfD did best among working-class voters (59 per cent), those with a lower level of education (57%) and those who felt they were doing badly economically (65%). 

Nine in 10 were “very worried too many foreign people live in Germany” but security, the economy and dissatisfaction with the national government also figured strongly.

‘Black day for European democracy’

Many Germans had believed their country had developed an immunity to nationalism and assertions of racial superiority after confronting the horrors of its Nazi past through education and laws to outlaw persecution. Sunday showed they were wrong.

Professor Cas Mudde, a respected researcher on radical-right movements, called the result a “black day for European democracy, even if it occurs in a small east German state.”

He said the result was an extreme case but argued it reflected similar trends in the rest of Europe and called on liberal parties to change their tactics to adapt.

“While Saxony-Anhalt (and Germany itself) may have dodged the worst outcome because the AfD won’t automatically fulfil its ambition of forming the first far-right state government in Germany since the Nazi era, there is no reason to assume it will be so lucky at the next election,” he wrote in The Guardian.

“Neither will other German states, such as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in two weeks’ time, or other countries, such as France next year. 

“No country is immune from the far right and, perhaps even more worryingly, no far-right party or politician is too extreme for political success (as the US has shown).”

What does it mean for the national government?

Dr Amy Verdun, a visiting professor of European politics at the Netherlands’ Leiden University, said the result was “a really big deal in Germany”.

“It leads to people realising that this is no longer a party of the fringes, but has really moved up to being a potentially mainstream party,” she told nine.com.au. 

“On the other hand … we will only know down the road, but this is not necessarily a watershed moment. 

“It's the moment of a wake-up call, and whether or not this leads to them even being the government depends on whether they can build a coalition.

“And also it’s one of the länder – so the 16 federal states – and it doesn’t mean that all of Germany thinks this way.”

But it’s hard to see the result as anything but a crushing blow for Merz.

He vowed to weaken AfD before he came to power last year, but instead has seen the party's support increase.

Meanwhile support for him and his party has tanked amid squabbling with centre-left Social Democrats in their governing coalition and a struggle to persuade voters that it can get the country’s chronically sluggish economy moving through potentially painful reforms.

On Monday he insisted it was a question of “nothing less than the future of our country and the opportunities of our children and grandchildren, and we must not squander those. 

“That is why my determination to continue the reform course is unbroken,” he said.

Germany faces another two regional elections on September 20 – in Berlin and in another eastern state, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where AfD is also strong.

The next election for the Bundestag is in 2029.

‘Similarities’ with One Nation surge in Australia

It’s hard not to draw comparisons with the rapid rise of Pauline Hanson and One Nation in Australia, particularly given the intense focus on comparatively minor elections.

“There are clearly similarities - not least the anti-woke, anti-migrant rhetoric and the claim to be representing 'the people' who've supposedly been let down by a liberal metropolitan elite that supposedly looks down on them,” Bale said.

But a landslide state election win is a long way from One Nation’s byelection wins in Farrer and Secret Harbour, and Germany’s Nazi past places a vastly different hue on any support for the far-right.

While Verdun saw similarities, she said the landscape in Australia was different to many parts of Europe, thanks in large part to the major parties being further to the right, particularly on issues such as immigration, which have figured in politics Down Under for years.

She said some political parties in Europe had simply not wanted to deal with questions about immigration or people’s dissatisfaction with multiculturalism.

“They just didn't want to address these issues head-on,” she said.

“And these right-wing parties they come in and they just bash the topic, so they play the emotional card of identity and failure of globalisation and ‘things were better in the past’ and all of that. 

“So I think that there is just a bit less success for the radical right in Australia, in part because of the way in which the regular parties deal with these kinds of issues.”

Will the ‘firewall’ hold?

Despite the AfD’s commanding win, it may not be able to form government after falling just three seats short of an absolute majority.

Because of Germany’s Nazi past, far-right movements have always come under strong scrutiny. Other major parties have refused to cooperate with AfD in a so-called “firewall.”

AfD has established itself as a significant political force in the 13 years since its founding, but it has never been part of any state or federal government.

Merz has strictly rejected any kind of cooperation with AfD in the past and top officials reiterated that stance on Sunday but a crack in the dyke could come from an unlikely source.

But political analyst Volker Resing said AfD may be able to overcome the firewall with the far-left BSW potentially serving as the kingmaker with its three seats.

“This tiny party could now play a decisive role in determining the future of Saxony-Anhalt," he told The Associated Press.

Despite being on opposite ends of the spectrum,the socially conservative parties share hostility to Germany's political establishment and migration, suspicion of the mainstream media and a desire ​to end financial and military support for Ukraine and restore ties with Russia.

Support from Musk, Trump and Russia 

AfD's victory is a major distraction for Germany and Merz at a time when Europe faces several challenges, including Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, a suspected sabotage campaign targeting NATO countries, and difficult dealings with US President Donald Trump.

Merz said he wanted to assure Germany’s allies that “our institutions are resilient and stable” and the country will stick to its values and constitution after the AfD win. 

“We know that Germany carries special responsibility because of its history,” he said.

He vowed that he won't “budge one millimetre from my fundamental conviction that we must defend our freedom against Russia now.” 

Germany is one of Ukraine's biggest supporters in its war against Russia.Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev on X described the outcome of the election as a “historic win for the pragmatic AfD that will put migration under control”.

“AfD will restore Germany and Europe by leading the common-sense approach that migrant-friendly, warmongering Biden-think EU politicians tried to eradicate,” he said.

Billionaire Elon Musk congratulated the AfD on its election victory with a “Well done!” on his online platform X.

Trump posted a screenshot of the election projection on his Truth Social platform without any comment.

The leaders of right-wing populist parties in Spain and Portugal also congratulated AfD.

The Polish prime minister was critical. 

“In Poland, only idiots or traitors could rejoice the AfD triumph in Germany,” Donald Tusk wrote on X.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, whose country faces a presidential election next year in which the far right is a leading contender, said that “AfD’s platform is a betrayal of the European spirit” and that “our first responsibility is to resist the normalization of far-right ideas”.

Among voters who didn't back AfD, the reaction was one of deep dismay. 

Horst Walter Boerner, an 86-year-old from Magdeburg born during World War II, expressed shock.

“It’s terrible for us,” he said, saying the election was “fear-driven”.

- reported with Associated Press and Reuters