‘The mood has definitely shifted’: Signs pointing to renewed US-Iran war

Reports of US shipping thousands of troops to the Middle East, renewed withdrawals of diplomatic officials and their families, and warnings from the US to regional allies are stoking fears the conflict with Iran is on course to turn “hot” again.

US President Donald Trump earlier this month posted on Truth Social that there would be no more strikes on Iran before the US midterms, but other than that has not disclosed future plans.

The war has been a factor in US domestic politics, being blamed by voters for rising fuel costs and other associated cost-of-living spikes.

After the midterms, however, Trump will enter what’s typically called the “lame duck” period of his presidency - with no more elections to win, his relevance on the political scene begins to wane.

However, it also means voter opinion counts for much less in the White House, while the presidency still has broad control over foreign policy.

Iranian officials meanwhile have been boasting of their replenished and revamped stock of weaponry, promising to retaliate in unprecedented measures if attacked.

“The mood has definitely shifted,” a 36-year-old American national living in Saudi Arabia told CNN. She plans to leave before Tuesday’s US midterms.

“People are more cautious in general, and it feels like a waiting game to see what happens,” she added.

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At homes and workplaces across Gulf Arab countries, questions are swirling.

Residents are searching for clues that could help them make plans in case of school closures or travel disruption.

The war began in February when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

It entered its eighth month this week with both sides still locked in a stubborn stalemate, neither making progress diplomatically nor capable of breaking the military impasse.

Trump has offered little clarity on his endgame, oscillating between threats of further strikes and openness to possible diplomacy.

Iran has tried to project its own deterrence, claiming it now possesses weaponry capable of striking more targets and inflicting even greater damage than before.

Mediation is continuing, but a breakthrough would depend on at least one of the two sides breaching their own red lines.

Trump wrote on social media earlier this month that Washington “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections”.

That the US president neither ruled out nor confirmed strikes would resume afterward is part of the reason for the ongoing nerves.

Trump also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the weekend amid the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran.

The contents of the call were unclear, though Axios, which first reported it, said the conversation was related to Iran.

Asked Sunday about his conversation with Netanyahu, Trump provided no details, saying only that he “had a very good talk” with the prime minister.

“The US has been actively feeding into this regionwide sense of anxiety as it keeps signaling that another round of escalation might be imminent,” Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN.

“But it’s becoming difficult to distinguish pressure tactics from genuine signals.”

Adding to a sense that escalation could be imminent, Netanyahu, who partnered with the US in attacking Iran and has been pushing for new strikes, will remain in office despite losing his majority in the recent elections.

Negotiations to form a new government in Israel look set to begin in earnest next week, but election results suggest it will be difficult for opposition parties to oust Netanyahu quickly, if at all.

In the absence of clarity, residents in the region often rely on hearsay or search social media for reports on troop movements to determine whether a US strike is imminent.

Over the past month, Iranian military commanders have also intensified a series of public messages claiming that Iran has built up large stockpiles of new weapons, a tactic designed to induce fear among Washington’s allies in the region.

A senior security official in Tehran told CNN that Iran will try to target infrastructure beyond oil facilities in the region, including AI, and warned that if the conflict resumes, it will be a long “war of surprises”.

On Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered a response “without geographical limitations” to any new threat, an apparent effort to present a leader still yet to be seen in public as playing an active role in military preparations.

Foreign workers drawn to wealthy Gulf Arab states by economic opportunities and a tax-free lifestyle have for decades lived in relative stability in a region mired in conflict.

That sense of security was shattered this year after the US and Israel launched the war, prompting Tehran to fire unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and drones onto Arab cities disrupting schools, travel and business and causing multiple casualties.

Yet, despite the war, many residents stayed put, telling CNN they feel confident under the protection of well-armed regional militaries.

Practical concerns remain, though.

This month, people were surprised to find out that families of US diplomats have begun discreetly leaving, with the sudden departures becoming known only after their children started saying goodbye to classmates at school.

Many of those leaving had only recently returned to their posts after being ordered out at the height of the Iran war in March, making the exits feel like a frustrating and chaotic déjà vu.

Fuelling anxiety among residents are reports of thousands of US troops being dispatched to the region, as reported by the Associated Press.

In Saudi Arabia, where major events have already been cancelled and offices closed with staff working remotely after the Iran-allied Houthi rebels intensified strikes, residents told CNN they were concerned that a return to war could increase pressure on a country already embroiled in conflict along its southern border.

Elsewhere in the region, other international gatherings remain on track, though the risk remains that they could be disrupted if the US launches strikes in the coming week.

Hopes of ‘time out’ remain

Despite growing anxiety over the possible resumption of war, there has been a flurry of quiet diplomacy over the past week.

US Vice President JD Vance sent Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei a letter, which the Islamic Republic is reviewing, according to Iranian media.

Trump has claimed that the letter was related to an Iranian request for medical supplies, but it has raised hopes a diplomatic breakthrough could still be possible.

Iranian officials are in Qatar for talks, a Qatari official said. Qatar has played a prominent role mediating, but the official added there was no US delegation present Saturday.

In stark contrast to Trump’s warnings, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack told CNN he thinks there could be “dramatic steps” in the next two weeks.

“We’re close. I think we’re very close to a place where we can finally say: Let’s just have a time out,” he said, adding that it is, however, a “matter of trust and who goes first”.

On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio would not say clearly if progress had been made in the talks over the past 48 hours, but claimed that “if there is a diplomatic solution, we would be open to it”.

Asked by CNN if the Trump administration has any time frame for progress in the talks before it would resume military action, Rubio said, “I don’t know if there’s a time frame,” noting that “it’s up to the president to make decisions with regards to those sorts of things”.

“There are multiple talks. Talks have actually never stopped. There’s been active conversations going, both in some cases directly, but often through intermediaries,” he said at a press conference in Atlanta.

“The president’s preference in any challenge around the world is to try to solve it diplomatically and peacefully, if possible,” Rubio said.

“He recognises there are some issues in the world that cannot be solved peacefully, unfortunately, sadly, but we would prefer to solve it in that manner.”

Rubio said that any diplomatic solution “can’t be one that endangers our national security or one that doesn’t meet our core concerns,” particularly around Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian officials have said they’re open for diplomacy with the US, but they do not have trust that talks will stop military strikes, citing several past occasions when the Islamic Republic was struck during negotiations.

And a central figure also warned that Iran was not ready to compromise.

“Iran’s conditions have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediators,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker who is leading negotiations with the US.

“The carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran. Progress can only be achieved once Iran’s seven conditions have been agreed upon.”

- Reported with CNN