How Aussies can pull off a Super Rugby miracle

The good news for Australian rugby fans is that the ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds are due.

In the 30-year history of Super Rugby, no Australian team has won a finals match in New Zealand.

That ugly 0-21 record is a confronting reality for coaches Stephen Larkham and Les Kiss, as they attempt to pilot their sides past the Hurricanes and Chiefs respectively.

Larkham’s sixth-ranked Brumbies are Wellington-bound to play the minor premiers, who scorched through the regular season scoring an average of more than 40 points per game.

The Hurricanes won this year’s clash of the capitals 45-12 in Christchurch, with power winger Fehi Fineanganofo scoring four tries alone.

But Fineanganofo is expected to miss Friday’s opening qualifying final as he recovers from a hamstring injury.

And while all those games were in Canberra, the Brumbies will draw some confidence from the fact that they knocked the Hurricanes out of the playoffs in 2022, 2023 and 2025.

“Just the way the Brumbies play, they can win tight,” ex-Wallabies halfback Nick Phipps told Stan Sport’s Between Two Posts.

“You certainly know that Bernie (Larkham) and his coaching staff will not be satisfied with that (regular season loss to the Hurricanes).

“I’ve also been on the end of a few sprays from Bernie in my playing days, and you don’t want to let the man down twice, so there will be a completely different performance, I imagine. The mentality going through the week, how they’re going to get up there. They always review the best, the Brumbies are always great at that.”

The bookmakers have written the Brumbies off as $10 outsiders after a 7-7 regular season. “I think they’ve just got to go back to their basics,” Phipps said.

“Their set piece is usually so good, their defence with the great Lord Laurie (Fisher) is usually so good. It is a very big ask, but I don’t think there’s any better occasion to stand up, right? Like everyone has been talking about the Hurricanes, they’ve all been getting their pats on the back.

“If there’s going to be an upset, if there’s going to be a hell of a story, you’d think this has got to be it. The boys will be firing for it, they’ve got a good mix of older boys, older heads who’ll know what it takes to get over there and get a win.”

The Brumbies beat the other four New Zealand teams - Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues and Highlanders - this season.

“Jeez, I am looking forward to it,” Phipps said. “I don’t think it’s going to be a paddling again, I reckon it’ll be a lot tighter than that.”

Phipps played for the Wallabies when Larkham was an assistant coach under Michael Cheika.

“He gives you a spray, but it’s a very passive spray,” Phipps explained.

“So you just sort of think he’s about to erupt, but he’s just like ‘yeah mate, that really wasn’t good enough.’ And you’re like, ‘oh my god, this is terrifying’!”

Even before the season kicked off, Morgan Turinui tipped the Hurricanes to win their first title since 2016. He said they deserved to start warm favourites but winter conditions in Wellington could be a real leveller for the Brumbies.

“They’ve just got to make this an arm wrestle,” Turinui said.

“They’ve got to make this the tough stuff, a lot of mauling, a lot of close quarter stuff, they don’t want to go toe to toe with the Harlem Globetrotters. If it’s expansive, high tempo and chaotic, then they probably don’t stick with them.”

Turinui suggested promoting breakdown specialist Luke Reimer into the starting lineup.

“You just cannot let them have any quick ball. Kill every ball we have to, and if it’s a 50/50, we’d rather give the penalty away than let them have fast ball.”

Turinui believed the fifth-ranked Reds, paying $8.50 to beat the Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday, were Australia’s best chance of reaching the semi-finals.

It could be Kiss’ last game in charge of Queensland before joining the Wallabies. “This is the defining match of the Les Kiss era,” Turinui said.

“It’s a few years of promise, not quite getting as high up the ladder as they wanted to in terms of setting up a finals run - and always being disappointed having to go away and not being able to do it in sudden death footy.”

The Reds finished the regular season with a 8-6 record after beating the Fijian Drua in Brisbane. “The cattle are there. The thing about the Reds is I still don’t think we’ve seen them put in one 80 minute performance this year,” ex-Queensland centre Turinui said.

“Everything we’re talking about now, about what they could possibly do this week is potential. We know this team has a ceiling probably higher than the Brumbies.

“They just haven’t had the consistency. The Reds probably out of all the Aussie teams are the ones that can go to the greatest heights. They have it in them, but it is the great insurmountable task in Super Rugby. Aussie teams going to play sudden death finals in New Zealand.”

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC QUALIFYING FINALS

FRIDAY JUNE 5

Hurricanes (1) vs ACT Brumbies (6): 5.05pm kickoff AEST at Hnry Stadium, Wellington

SATURDAY JUNE 6

Crusaders (3) vs Blues (4): 2.35pm kickoff AEST at One New Zealand Stadium, Christchurch

Chiefs (2) vs Queensland Reds (5): 5.05pm kickoff AEST at FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

AUSSIE FINALS TALE OF WOE IN NZ

Brumbies: 0/9

1997 Final - 23-7 v Blues at Eden Park

2002 Final - 31-13 v Crusaders at Lancaster Park

2003 Semi-final - 42-21 v Blues at Eden Park

2013 Final - 27-22 v Chiefs in Hamilton

2015 Semi-final - 29-9 v Hurricanes in Wellington

2022 Semi-final - 20-19 v Blues at Eden Park

2023 Semi-final - 19-6 v Chiefs in Hamilton

2024 Semi-final - 34-20 v Blues at Eden Park

2025 Semi-final - 37-17 v Chiefs in Hamilton

Waratahs: 0/6

2005 Final - 35-25 v Crusaders at Lancaster Park 

2006 Semi-final - 16-14 v Hurricanes in Wellington

2008 Final - 20-12 v Crusaders at Lancaster Park

2011 Quarter-final - 26-13 v Blues at Eden Park

2022 Quarter-final - 39-15 v Chiefs in Hamilton

2023 Quarter-final - 41-12 v Blues at Eden Park

Reds: 0/5

2013 Quarter-final - 38-9 v Crusaders in Christchurch

2022 Quarter-final - 37-15 v Crusaders in Christchurch

2023 Quarter-final - 29-20 v Chiefs in Hamilton

2024 Quarter-final - 43-21 v Chiefs in Hamilton

2025 Quarter-final 32-12 v Crusaders in Christchurch

Rebels: 0/1

2024 Quarter-final - 47-20 v Hurricanes in Wellington