Round 12 tips: Brad Fittler drops crazy stat that points to big upset in Friday night blockbuster

Manly have beaten the Storm the last two times they've visited 4Pines Park and Brad Fittler has pointed to an even more unlikely statistic as his reason for backing the Sea Eagles to spring an upset on Friday night.

Fittler did some digging on Melbourne's record at Brookvale Oval and it is one of the few places where Craig Bellamy hasn't got on top of the head-to-head.

"Melbourne's record's actually in the forties (per cent) at 4Pines," Fittler told Andrew Johns for Wide World of Sports' Freddy and the Eighth's Tips.

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"I wouldn't think Melbourne would have less than 50 per cent anywhere, so I'm going to tip Manly for that reason."

Wide World of Sports has verified Fittler's claim, with the Storm trailing the Sea Eagles 11-10 in the 21 match head-to-head at Brookvale Oval since Melbourne was founded in 1998 - a 48 per cent winning record.

Bellamy can lift that to 50 per cent with a win on Friday, a result that the bookmakers are backing with the Storm $1.65 favourites.

However, according to Johns, Sea Eagles fans have reason to be optimistic after three straight losses by six points or less.

Manly coughed up big leads against the Raiders and the Dolphins, losing by two and six points respectively, before a field-goal crushed their hopes of a Magic Round boilover against the Broncos last Friday.

"C'mon Manly, win the tight ones," Johns urged as he backed the Sea Eagles to arrest their recent slide.

Playing in the home side's favour is the tight turnaround for the Storm, who played the Eels on Sunday afternoon in Magic Round before boarding a Sunday night flight home to Melbourne.

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They were due to arrive in Sydney on Thursday, with the quick backup between away trips certain to pose challenges.

On top of that is the difficulty of replacing Cameron Munster, who is sidelined alongside gamebreaker Ryan Papenhuyzen, with both facing long stints off the field.

Halfback Jahrome Hughes has been named to return from a calf injury, somewhat softening the Munster blow.

Meanwhile, the home side is reeling after young gun Tolu Koula was ruled out with an injured AC joint, forcing the Sea Eagles to field a third-choice fullback as Tom Trbojevic recovers from a hamstring injury. Lehi Hopoate, the latest son of John to breakthrough for an NRL debut, replaces Koula in the line-up, although it is unclear whether he will come straight into the fullback role or elsewhere in the backline. Reuben Garrick is Manly's other contender to deputise at fullback.

Scroll below for the current leaderboard and Round 12 tips by all Nine's expert tipsters!

Andrew Johns: Dragons, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

Brad Fittler: Dragons, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Sharks, Eels, Broncos, Warriors

Allana Ferguson: Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

Darren Lockyer: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

Danika Mason: Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

Johnathan Thurston: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Eels, Broncos, Dolphins

Peter Psaltis: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Dolphins

Ruan Sims: Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

David Middleton: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors

The Mole: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Eels, Broncos, Warriors

Ben Glover: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Warriors