NRL week 1 finals tips: Raiders grilled for throwing away advantage as star's injury tilts balance of blockbuster

Andrew Johns is tipping injured Raiders champion Josh Papalii to "play for sure" despite photos of his swollen and bruised ankle putting the spiritual leader of Ricky Stuart's side in further doubt.

Papalii injured his ankle during a training session last week but was on Tuesday named to start Sunday's blockbuster qualifying final against Brisbane.

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That likely won't be confirmed until Saturday, with the Raiders to give their Origin star every opportunity to prove his fitness before a game that has huge consequences for the path to the grand final.

While the Raiders were minor premiers and are hosting the game, there are plenty of tipsters who believe the Broncos can spring an upset in the nation's capital, which would give them hosting rights for a preliminary final.

Papalii's involvement is seen as a crucial indicator, especially with Broncos front-rower Payne Haas in career-best form.

"I'm going to go Broncos, watching what Payne Haas did last week, he just looks like at the moment he wants it," Brad Fittler told Wide World of Sports' Freddy and the Eighth's Tips.

He added that regardless of whether Papalii proves his fitness and plays, it will be up to Canberra skipper Joseph Tapine to step up to the mark and go head-to-head with Haas.

"I always say front-rowers... has to be Tapine who takes (Haas) on, Papa's injured. Tapine's in the form of his life," Fittler said.

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While Tapine and Papalii are the Raiders' two best credentialed front-rowers, Corey Horsburgh has also had a sensational season and has rediscovered the kind of form that earned him an Origin cap for Queensland in 2023.

Horsburgh is often a target for opposition forwards but Fittler said he shouldn't get distracted with the enforcer role, with the 27-year-old's finesse more important to how the Raiders play.

"Big Red has other parts of his game he needs to ... I love the ad lib part of his game that Big Red plays with," Fittler said.

"Everyone tries to bash him, he's got great offloads, he's energetic, so I think he's got other things to concentrate on."

While the forward battle will go a long way to deciding the winner on Sunday, Queenslanders Wally Lewis and Nine commentator Peter Psaltis have expressed surprise that the Raiders lobbied to have the game played on Sunday afternoon, rather than having it at night when conditions would be toughest for Brisbane.

Led by the firepower of Reece Walsh, the Broncos have shown that they can be devastating in attack in dry conditions over the last two months, with the backline appearing to find its mojo since Ben Hunt has taken the reins at halfback.

There are even calls for Hunt to retain the No.7 jersey throughout the finals series, despite the likelihood that captain Adam Reynolds will be fit to return as early as next week.

"If you get good weather it could be anything," Fittler said.

"They're a terrific attacking side, no matter what the conditions are, Brisbane, but they'll come out this week, no doubt, they'll look to throw the ball around," added Psaltis, speaking on Wide World of Sports' QLDER.

"Reece Walsh ... I'm with you, I thought Saturday night in Canberra, I mean it's going to be a great occasion anyway as it is, but I thought Saturday night in Canberra, with a little bit of chill in the air, would have favoured the Raiders big time."

Lewis agreed, drawing on his experience as a player.

"Certainly, if you had to play Canberra in Canberra it was never comfortable," he said on QLDER.

"To be able to play them on a sunny afternoon was certainly the preferred option rather than playing them in the frosty conditions, although it's not that cool now.

"But when you're playing them at night time you've got half the city turning up to make you a little uncomfortable with the conditions, that's not exactly what you want in finals football."

Scroll below for the current leaderboard and finals week one tips by all Nine's expert tipsters!

Andrew Johns: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Raiders

Brad Fittler: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Broncos

Billy Slater: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Broncos

Danika Mason: Storm, Panthers, Sharks, Raiders

Paul Gallen: Storm, Panthers, Sharks, Broncos

Darren Lockyer: Storm, Panthers, Sharks, Broncos

Mat Thompson: Storm, Panthers, Sharks, Raiders

Peter Psaltis: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Broncos

David Middleton: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Raiders

The Mole: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Broncos

Ben Glover: Storm, Panthers, Roosters, Raiders