Genius or madman? Crazy State of Origin selection gambles put Billy Slater's coaching legacy on the line

By 11pm next Wednesday, Billy Slater's rugby league coaching legacy could well and truly be sealed.

The Queensland legend will either wake up Thursday looking like a genius, or a madman who took one gamble too many at the State of Origin selection table.

The newspaper headlines will be determined solely by the result of Origin III in Sydney.

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He's taken more than one punt this year after losing the 2024 series, being stunned by a spirited New South Wales outfit in a Suncorp Stadium decider.

That loss seemingly convinced Slater to throw out the rulebook and throw caution to the wind.

His first surprise decision was to hand 10-game NRL rookie Robert Toia a debut in the centres, marking Latrell Mitchell no less.

While Mitchell has thrown a couple of neat passes to put his winger Brian To'o over the line, the rampaging Blues centre failed to score a try himself in the first two games and was kept relatively quiet.

In game one, Toia made an astonishing 24 tackles as the Blues peppered his edge. In game two, he made 20.

To put those numbers into context, Queensland's left centre has made just 10 tackles across the first two games this series.

That's a big green tick for Slater's first punt.

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Then, after losing the series opener in Brisbane, Slater shocked the rugby league world by axing his captain and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans.

He was the first Origin coach to dump a captain mid-series in almost 30 years, and who he replaced DCE with also raised eyebrows.

Cameron Munster was handed the armband over the likes of club captains Harry Grant and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, despite a checkered past and his penchant for acting the clown.

It turned out to be an inspired decision. Munster was one of the best players afield as his Maroons held off the Blues to win game two and square the series in Perth.

Granted, a lopsided penalty count certainly helped Queensland win the game, but you can only play with the cards you're dealt, and the Maroons certainly made the most of the helping hand from referee Ashley Klein.

Slater also ignored calls for him to change the starting line-up before kick-off, stubbornly opting to start Grant at hooker and leave Jeremiah Nanai and Pat Carrigan on the bench.

And on Monday - even after winning game two - it was Slater again who shocked all and sundry when his Queensland team was unveiled.

A stunning debut for rugby league journeyman Gehamat Shibasaki - the battler who didn't even have an NRL contract a few months ago - and somehow luring Josh Papali'i out of retirement to play the decider in Blues territory.

He also snubbed gun fullback Reece Walsh from selection when most assumed he was a shoo-in for the No.1 jumper, instead shuffling his backline around and handing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow the job.

As far as selection gambles go, Slater has made four in the space of a few weeks that must be individually considered some of the biggest in Origin history. Toia and Shibasaki in, Cherry-Evans out, and recalling a 33-year-old prop who hung up his Maroons jumper years ago.

All up he's made up to a dozen crunch calls that could decide the series.

"We all know the football gods are Queenslanders - they brought the rain in Perth, they brought big Papa back for Sydney," former Blues coach Phil Gould told 100% Footy this week.

"It's just their way of inflicting their little nuance into Origin and upsetting the apple cart again."

Blues coach Laurie Daley has gone the other way, refusing to make any changes or, indeed, surprising selection decisions even despite losing game two. Talk about boring. What are we supposed to write about?

Make no mistake, the Maroons have only played one good half of footy so far this series, and NSW are well and truly considered favourites to retain the shield at Accor Stadium next week.

The champion fullback has taken all his chips and put them on red. Go big or go home. "There is no tomorrow if we lose," said Slater's assistant Josh Hannay before game two.

Of course, he runs the risk of having egg on his face, being ridiculed and being laughed out of town.

Will his contract to coach the Maroons next year also be under threat by consecutive series losses? Unlikely.

But if Slater can orchestrate a Queensland victory behind enemy lines, it will go down as one of the greatest coaching performances in the 45-year history of the interstate epic.