Victoria Derby form guide: 'Question mark' hanging over race favourite as two tipped to fight for $2m feature

An upset is being tipped in the Penfolds Victoria Derby on Saturday.

Flemington will kick off its Cup carnival - to be broadcast exclusively on Nine and 9Now - with Derby day in front of tens of thousands of racegoers.

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The $2 million Penfolds Victoria Derby (2500m) is the feature race on the card and it looms as an open affair for punters, according to analyst Grace Ramage.

"I think it's a really competitive edition of the Penfolds Victoria Derby," Ramage told Wide World of Sports.

"Those at the top of the market I think all have really good winning chances.

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"El Castello on the quick seven-day back up after winning a Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick last Saturday, that's always been a recipe for a horse to be well respected in the betting and run really well, so he's got a good chance.

"My question mark is him in barrier 18. There is a lot of speed in this race so I just wonder how much energy he might have to use to get a position near the speed in the early stages."

Ramage is instead looking at two horses a little longer in the market with TAB - Politely Dun ($10) and King Of Thunder ($6).

Both ran in the Moonee Valley Vase a week earlier and she says they should love the long Flemington straight over 2500m.

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"They didn't win the race, but I loved the way they didn't seem to corner that well around the tight turning circuit of the Valley... once they straightened they really let down," Ramage said.

"I expect both of those horses to relish the big, spacious Flemington track and we will be seeing them doing their best work late."

The Derby is one of three Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday.

The Melbourne Cup barrier draw will take place immediately following the racing at Flemington.

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*All odds courtesy of TAB as of Thursday

1. EL CASTELLO (barrier 18)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Jockey: Joshua Parr

Career: 7: 4-1-1

Last 6: 8x1111

Win range: 1400m-2000m

Earnings: $1,625,975

Odds: $3.70 / $1.70

2. RED ACES (barrier 4)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Nick Ryan

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Career: 5: 2-1-1

Last 6: 31021

Win range: 1800m-2040m

Earnings: $395,360

Odds: $7 / $2.50

3. KEENELAND (barrier 11)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: T & N Busuttin & Young

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Career: 5: 2-1-1

Last 6: 42113

Win range: 1606m-1800m

Earnings: $152,890

Odds: $10 / $3.20

4. GOLDRUSH GURU (barrier 15)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Andrew Gluyas

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 7: 3-2-1

Last 6: x11221

Win range: 1250m-1800m

Earnings: $149,675

Odds: $10 / $3.20

5. SAINT EMILION (barrier 6)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 4: 2-0-1

Last 6: 3711

Win range: 1600m-2200m

Earnings: $145,100

Odds: $17 / $4.80

6. KINGOFWALLSTREET (barrier 10)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Matt Cumani

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 3: 1-1-0

Last 6: 721

Win range: 2000m

Earnings: $135,600

Odds: $19 / $5

7. POLITELY DUN (barrier 5)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 7: 1-1-3

Last 6: 523314

Win range: 2000m

Earnings: $106,585

Odds: $13 / $3.90

8. KING OF THUNDER (barrier 1)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: J & T O'Shea & Charlton

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 5: 1-1-2

Last 6: 23173

Win range: 1600m

Earnings: $81,300

Odds: $6 / $2.30

9. TENBURY WELLS (barrier 14)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Brad Widdup

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 9: 2-1-0

Last 6: x26115

Win range: 1600m-2000m

Earnings: $91,975

Odds: $15 / $4.40

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10. PERU (barrier 2)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: M & G Moroney & Thompson

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 8: 1-0-1

Last 6: x83666

Win range: 1300m

Earnings: $90,525

Odds: $81 / $19

11. CHINA SEA (barrier 7)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: John Sargent

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 5: 1-1-0

Last 6: 10x962

Win range: 1400m

Earnings: $69,675

Odds: $14 / $4

12. HOT TOO GO (barrier 13)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 7: 0-3-0

Last 6: 0x7222

Win range: NA

Earnings: $65,075

Odds: $41 / $10

13. SCARY (barrier 8)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: E & D Browne

Jockey: Luke Nolen

Career: 5: 1-1-1

Last 6: 02135

Win range: 1732m

Earnings: $49,225

Odds: $41 / $10

14. OXFORD BLUE (barrier 16)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Julius Sandhu

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 3: 1-0-2

Last 6: 313

Win range: 1740m

Earnings: $46,075

Odds: $34 / $9

15. WEST INDIES (barrier 17)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Mark W Walker

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 3: 1-0-0

Last 6: 414

Win range: 1400m

Earnings: $52,250

Odds: $81 / $19

16. AUTUMNHEAT (barrier 12)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Matt Cumani

Jockey: Eoin Walsh

Career: 5: 0-0-1

Last 6: 44935

Win range: NA

Earnings: $19,965

Odds: $126 / $26

17. WAR RIBBON (barrier 3)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 5: 1-2-1

Last 6: 4x3221

Win range: 2260m

Earnings: $48,875

Odds: $23 / $6

18. CECCHETTI (barrier 9)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Matt Cumani

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Career: 3: 0-0-1

Last 6: 734

Win range: NA

Earnings: $8,835

Odds: $81 / $17