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'Not in the best three or four': Matthew Lloyd pinpoints Bailey Smith weakness holding him back from the elite

Emily Patterson
Emily Patterson

Updated . First published at

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Essendon great Matthew Lloyd believes Geelong recruit Bailey Smith has a weakness that is stopping him from taking his place among the AFL's upper echelon.

While Lloyd acknowledges that Smith has been a huge get for the Cats this season, and is held in good standing as a favourite for this year's Brownlow Medal, he could benefit from slowing things down.

This season, Smith tops the league with an average of 31.5 disposals per game. He also leads in metres gained, averaging 691.1m.

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Bailey Smith of the Cats is tackled by Tom Liberatore of the Bulldogs.

Bailey Smith of the Cats is tackled by Tom Liberatore of the Bulldogs. Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

However, those impressive numbers come with a trade-off.

Smith is ranked second-worst in the competition for turnovers, averaging 6.1 per game.

Among midfielders who have played six or more games this year, he is also fourth-worst for disposal efficiency, executing only 62.2 per cent of his possessions.

While Smith has brought significant positives to the Cats, Lloyd feels that some of his tendencies are giving him a bad rap.

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"He's been polarised," he told Nine's Footy Classified on Monday night.

"He's a massive tick because he's made Geelong better, but he's not say a [Marcus] Bontempelli.

Bailey Smith celebrates with supporters after the Cats' win over the Magpies in round eight.  AFL Photos via Getty Images

"He's still in the best 10 midfielders in the game, in my opinion, but he's not in the best three or four because of his turnover stats.

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"He lacks the class of the best, but he's still been a wonderful addition."

So Smith's performance is a double-edged sword.

On one hand, Smith is a "game-breaker" because of his ability to "break the lines". However, this can be negated as he frequently makes unforced errors.

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Lloyd doesn't believe this can be fixed on the run.

"No, I don't think so, I think it's always been in Bailey Smith," he said.

In 2022, arguably one of Smith's stronger campaigns, his average turnovers per game were 3.8 and his disposal efficiency was 65.7 per game.

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Not all respected midfielders in the AFL era have been renowned for being efficient kicks, particularly compared to specialist defenders or outside midfielders.

Geelong great Jimmy Bartel explained that more errors are expected from high-contested players, such as Smith, who are under pressure.

"Some [midfielders] have had lower disposal efficiencies, but it's where they are getting them from when you're in contested situations," he said.

"If you're a high-contested player, your kicking efficiency, not necessarily your handball efficiency, goes down."

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Bartel did not believe Smith's clangers came down to a poor kicking technique but rather his age and experience.

"He's 24 [years old]. As you get along, you feel more comfortable," he said.

"I look at his kicking technique and it's pretty sound with his ball drop, so for me, it would be around decision making."

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