How John Longmire can erase his AFL coaching legacy's only black mark

Which coach will hurt more come the final siren of the 2024 AFL grand final?

If Sydney go down to Brisbane, it will be coach John Longmire's fourth grand final loss from five appearances.

And for Lions leader Chris Fagan, it will be two grand final heartbreaks in a row.

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Longmire saw success in just his second year at the helm, taking the Swans to a 2012 premiership triumph over Hawthorn.

Since then, the coach has kept his side in contention, but struggled when it mattered most, on the biggest stage of all.

After that flag 12 years ago, the Swans lost the 2014, 2016 and 2022 grand finals.

It left Essendon premiership forward Matthew Lloyd concerned that if Longmire fails again in 2024, his legacy will be tarnished.

"Someone described him (Longmire) recently to me as the Craig Bellamy (Melbourne Storm NRL coach) of the AFL," Lloyd said on Nine's Footy Classified in early September.

"But Craig's got more premierships to show than John Longmire."

And that fact is true. One flag from four outings hurts, but it hasn't deterred the coach on his quest for another premiership cup.

So how exactly do Longmire's men right the wrongs of years gone by?

No skipper, no worries

Sydney has made a bold statement by leaving out captain Callum Mills from their grand final side.

Mills got through their Wednesday training session "feeling good", but Longmire opted to keep the skipper out.

And it's a move Longmire has not made in recent grand final history.

Two years ago, the Swans opted to play injured big man Sam Reid in their grand final loss to Geelong.

He was subbed out in the early stages after struggling to impose himself on the game.

Back in the 2016 grand final, the Swans took a double risk and played an underdone Callum Mills (hamstring) and Jarrad McVeigh (calf).

They went down to the Bulldogs by 22 points.

This year, Longmire is refusing to make the same mistake.

Mills strained his hamstring just after their qualifying final win over GWS, and was ruled out of the preliminary final. He then made a valiant effort to return by training strongly in the Swans' main training session this week but failed to prove he was 100 per cent to the eyes of Longmire.

It seems like the safe call from the Swans, which they're hoping is the correct one.

Lions' late surge

It's happened in two finals on their way to another shot at the premiership.

Brisbane has come from behind to snatch victories against the Giants and Cats, after slow starts that forced them to go up several gears.

All eyes will be on Lions midfielder Cam Rayner, who tore Geelong apart in one quarter of their preliminary final.

In the third term of that game, Rayner had 11 of his 18 disposals and kicked a crucial goal.

Alongside him doing heavy in-and-under midfield work was dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale, who had an astounding 12 clearances for the match.

If the Swans middle men slack off for even five minutes, Neale will simply get to work, especially if his opposition let him run without a tag.

"I wish we could do that all the time (be winning from the first minute), the game would be a lot easier," Lions defender Harris Andrews admitted on Nine's Grand Final Footy Show on Thursday night.

"I'm really proud of what the boys can achieve when our backs are up against the wall."

So how do the Swans stop that "backs against the wall" mentality that the Lions middle men thrive on?

Swans killer instincts

Brisbane key defender Harris Andrews is unlikely to man up directly on any of Sydney's midfield stars.

But it doesn't mean he's not terrified of what the big three can produce when the heat is on.

Sydney trio Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner have a habit of stringing together an electrifying 15 minutes of football that puts their opposition to the sword.

Their middle work and full press allows crucial time for their key forwards in Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean to find space in their forward line, before their defenders can play catch up.

"Their midfield is dangerous. Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, they've got great ball use," he said.

"Their ability to get on the outside is super impressive."

As for Andrews, the word is that Swans veteran Luke Parker may be assigned to play a shutdown role on the Lions backman.

It's a new age when discussions turn to limiting the impact of a defender, with Andrews preparing to shake off an additional tag.

"It's going to take a pretty concerted effort form the whole group," he said.

"Whether or not Luke Parker, or Logan McDonald or Joel Amartey come to me, doesn't really matter. I'm just there to play in our system."

Last time they met

The Lions snatched a two-point victory over the ladder-leading Swans in round 19.

At the time, it felt like a teaser for what this grand final could be.

Brisbane came from 15 points down at the final break, to kick four goals to two in the last quarter. It was Lion Callum Ah Chee who kicked the winner, allowing his side to hold on to snag the four points.

If a late surging Lions are once again able to pick apart the Swans in the dying stages their prize will be far greater than just four points.

Who wins?

Two years ago, when Geelong overcame the Swans in the grand final by a whopping 81 points, there was a general consensus that Sydney had peaked a little early by reaching the big dance.

But even then there was a feeling that two more years of further development for the likes of Warner, Gulden, James Rowbottom, Ollie Florent, Robbie Fox and others, could put the Swans in a position to do something similar to the Cats' demolition job on their next grand final opponent.

Now might just be the time we see that killer Sydney sidego in for the kill on the biggest stage.

Another factor is a tired Lions outfit, which has had to endure weeks of close games and come-from-behind victories. Are they about to run out of steam?

Even if the Lions are at their peak, give that Swans midfield about 10 minutes and there's a sense that they'll show you exactly why they're a force to be reckoned with on the last Saturday in September.

Prediction

Result: Sydney by 22 points

Norm Smith Medallist: Tom Papley