Brownlow guide: Crows, Dees skippers locked in tight battle for votes

There are fascinating storylines all over the place ahead of this year’s Brownlow Medal, particularly from a team-by-team perspective.

Expect multiple tight races between players to lead their respective clubs, with Adelaide, Melbourne and Fremantle particularly interesting.

Let’s go through each team and predict their leading vote getter and the player mostly likely to cause an upset.

Adelaide

Predicted leading vote getter: Izak Rankine

Smokey: Jordan Dawson

Analysis: This will be neck and neck. Dawson will have a commanding lead going into the final two months of the season, given Rankine missed with injury between rounds 11 and 15, but he will come home with a wet sail. Rankine may poll more votes than any other player from round 17 onwards and should pip the captain at the line.

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Brisbane

Predicted leading vote getter: Will Ashcroft

Smokey: Lachie Neale

Analysis: Neale has vacuumed up the vast majority of Brisbane Brownlow votes across the 2020s, but that ends this year. Will Ashcroft had a better year and will come home like a rocket with votes after the bye. He’s flashy, is becoming a big name and should lead the way for the Lions.

Carlton

Predicted leading vote getter: Patrick Cripps

Smokey: Sam Walsh

Analysis: Patrick Cripps is a dual-Brownlow winner who polls for fun and will rise quickly up the rankings in the middle of the year. He should lead the way for the Blues, but Sam Walsh had an excellent finish to the season and is certainly in the mix.

Collingwood

Predicted leading vote getter: Nick Daicos

Smokey: Seriously?

Analysis: There’s a world where Nick Daicos polls 40 more votes than the next highest Collingwood player; and that’s partly why he’s this year’s runaway favourite for the top gong.

Essendon

Predicted leading vote getter: Archie Roberts

Smokey: Parish, Merrett, Durham ... anyone who gets one vote

Analysis: Won’t be many votes going around at Essendon this year. Archie Roberts is projected to poll in three games, while Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Sam Durham could poll in somewhere between one and three themselves. Roberts had some strong form early in the year and racked up a ton of footy, that might give him the edge.

Fremantle

Predicted leading vote getter: Caleb Serong

Smokey: Jackson, Brayshaw, Reid ... it’ll be even

Analysis: Fremantle won 19 games. There will be a lot of votes coming their way. Having said that, they will be largely evenly distributed between Luke Jackson, Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, Murphy Reid and others. When in doubt, lean towards the midfielder over the ruckman when it comes to the Brownlow. Serong and Reid are the two to watch here, despite Jackson’s incredible season.

Geelong

Predicted leading vote getter: Bailey Smith

Smokey: No contenders

Analysis: Given Max Holmes’ injury, there’s no Cat who will get anywhere near Smith on Brownlow night. Smith could easily poll in the high 30s and give Daicos a run for his money.

Gold Coast

Predicted leading vote getter: Matt Rowell

Smokey: Christian Petracca

Analysis: Christian Petracca will come out of the blocks hard in the first eight weeks of the season, but will then vanish, much like Gold Coast’s season did. Rowell, who won last year’s medal out of nowhere, should be able to track him down by the end of the year. The umpires clearly love him.

GWS

Predicted leading vote getter: Clayton Oliver

Smokey: Finn Callaghan or Lachie Ash

Analysis: Clayton Oliver was back to his best as a Giant and given his history of polling well, should be the main man at GWS this year. Finn Callaghan and Lachie Ash should poll a few votes, with Callaghan the most likely to match Oliver.

Hawthorn

Predicted leading vote getter: Jai Newcombe

Smokey: Nick Watson, but unlikely

Analysis: Jai Newcombe will comfortably lead Hawthorn for votes and is a rough chance to get near the podium. If he polls vastly under expectations and Nick Watson well above, there’s a world where he could catch him, but it’s quite unlikely. Watson could quickly become an umpire favourite in future years.

Melbourne

Predicted leading vote getter: Kysaiah Pickett

Smokey: Max Gawn

Analysis: This is another case of midfielder versus ruckman, though Gawn polled 23 last year. Pickett had some dominant performances for the Dees and won games off his own boot however, and that is likely to give him a narrow edge.

North Melbourne

Predicted leading vote getter: Harry Sheezel

Smokey: Luke Davies-Uniacke

Analysis: The two North Melbourne midfielders had quite an even season and should both poll reasonably well. Davies-Uniacke might be leading the way in the first half of the year, but expect Sheezel to finish strong and come over the top of him.

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Port Adelaide

Predicted leading vote getter: Jason Horne-Francis

Smokey: Zak Butters

Analysis: Butters will poll in most games across the first half of the season, but his season-ending injury opens the door wide for Horne-Francis to take over. Despite that, it could still run close if he gets overlooked a couple of times. This one isn’t clear-cut.

Richmond

Predicted leading vote getter: Tim Taranto

Smokey: Sam Lalor

Analysis: The Tigers will barely feature anywhere on Brownlow night, but Tim Taranto at the very least could poll somewhere between eight and 10 votes. No other Richmond player will cross five, you would think. If anyone, Sam Lalor had a few standout performances and could poll half a dozen.

St Kilda

Predicted leading vote getter: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Smokey: None within reach

Analysis: St Kilda’s $2m man will almost certainly lead the way for the Saints on Brownlow night and is expected to poll around 25 votes. There’s a chance no other St Kilda player cracks double digits.

Sydney

Predicted leading vote getter: Isaac Heeney

Smokey: Chad Warner or Errol Gulden

Analysis: Welcome to the elephant in the room portion of this article, with Isaac Heeney almost certain to lead Sydney for votes and poll somewhere between 20 and 30, putting him near the podium. Chad Warner had a strong year and Errol Gulden was arguably the best player in the competition across the last six weeks and will finish with a ton of votes.

West Coast

Predicted leading vote getter: Harley Reid

Smokey: Absolutely nobody

Analysis: Harley Reid is a looming future Brownlow winner and could poll close to 20 votes on Monday night. There’s a world where no other Eagle crosses five votes, however. Tim Kelly might pinch one or two, Elliot Yeo the same, but no one is getting close to Reid.

Western Bulldogs

Predicted leading vote getter: Marcus Bontempelli

Smokey: Ed Richards

Analysis: Bontempelli will once again be among the contenders for the award, though doesn’t have the pure voting upside that Daicos or Smith have; and that’s in part because of a player like Ed Richards, who could pinch 20–25 votes. It’s unlikely he upsets Bontempelli, but it’s not impossible.