Wildcard Cat standing between ‘unbackable’ Brownlow favourite and history
This year’s Brownlow Medal is being written off as a foregone conclusion, with the consensus suggesting Collingwood star Nick Daicos will win and by double-digit votes.
The midfielder is an unbackable favourite with odds makers, while every online predictor has him running away with the award.
Nick Daicos winning the AFLPA MVP award for 2026. AFL Photos via Getty Images
But the Brownlow Medal generally tends to find a way to surprise and catch people off guard and this year could certainly be no different.
Why Nick Daicos is runaway favourite
The Collingwood champion put together a consistently excellent season, making the All-Australian team and winning both the AFL Players Association and Coaches Association player of the year awards.
Already arguably the game's best player coming into the season, Daicos found a way to add more to his game in 2026, averaging 34.6 disposals per game, up from 30 last season, and kicked 26 goals, up from 17 in 2025.
He averaged fewer clearances, but more inside 50s and rebound 50s as his game transitioned more to damage around the ground than at stoppages.
That consistency of excellence will likely see him poll in almost every match. The AFL’s official Brownlow predictor has Daicos polling votes in all but four games, including 12 best on ground performances.
He is also a proven vote getter with the umpires, despite being yet to win the award itself. Daicos polled 32 last year, 38 in 2024 and 28 from 19 games in 2023.
On top of everything else, there's just nobody at Collingwood taking any votes from him. Daicos finished over 100 votes clear of the next highest Pie in the AFLCA Player of the Year award. Where other contenders have multiple star midfielders stealing votes from each other, Daicos is flying solo at the Magpies.
There's every chance the 23-year-old polls so strongly this year that he holds an unassailable lead going into the final month of games.
Why history says not to count your Brownlow chickens before they hatch
Daicos is the clear favourite for this year's Brownlow, but let's not forget he was also the clear favourite in 2024 and 2025 as well before ultimately finishing second.
In both of those years, a rival midfielder bobbed up out of nowhere to poll record numbers and overthrow him.
In 2024, Daicos broke the record for most votes ever polled … but so did Carlton captain Patrick Cripps, winning with a ridiculous 45 votes. The very next year, Gold Coast star Matt Rowell performed a near-identical feat, polling 39.
Even if the Collingwood star puts up high 30s again, who's to say someone else won't go with him once again? The umpires have access to stats this year when making their votes, which is an unknown variable in all of this.
You only have to look at history to see things don't always go to plan for short-priced Brownlow Medal favourites.
Few expected Matt Rowell to win last year’s Brownlow Medal. Getty
In 2008, Gary Ablett Jr was the clear Brownlow favourite, but was pipped by Western Bulldogs midfielder Adam Cooney - Ablett did miss three games with an injury, however.
Of course, on the flip side, you have Ablett (2009), Patrick Dangerfield (2016), Dustin Martin (2017), Tom Mitchell (2018) and Lachie Neale (2020) where there has been a heavy favourite who won as expected.
So, who could overthrow him and cause a huge shock?
The two most likely players to vote above expectation and potentially win the award are Geelong's Bailey Smith and Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli.
Smith will poll hard early in the season and will finish strong, but a lean patch around his bye week is where Daicos is expected to separate. Smith however is a proven vote getter, finishing on the podium last year, and the Cats won a number of games.
He could certainly poll in the high 30s and make the count particularly interesting. And would certainly have the AFL on edge as he gives his acceptance speech.
Bailey Smith of the Cats and Andrew Dillon at the 2025 Brownlow Medal. AFL Photos via Getty Images
Bontempelli meanwhile always polls well and the narrative surrounding the fact that he hasn't won a Brownlow might be in the back of the minds of umpires.
Cripps will poll heavily across the back half of the season, but will likely be coming from too far back to win it, while Brisbane midfielder Will Ashcroft is the wildcard in the pack.
The Lions finished top four, he had a strong season, should have made the All-Australian team and is a fresh young face on the rise. His issue will be Neale and other Brisbane stars siphoning votes from him.
The elephant in the room is the Isaac Heeney possibility. The Swans star will likely poll well across the season for a team that finished second on the ladder. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he makes things very awkward for the AFL on Monday night.
Smith is the one with the best chance to cause a Brownlow boilover, but it does feel like the year everything comes together for Daicos.
And after three straight years of podium finishes, he deserves the crowning moment.
