Daicos déjà vu? The biggest shocks in recent Brownlow history
Collingwood star Nick Daicos enters the 2026 Brownlow Medal count as the runaway favourite by such a distance, many believe it could be over with a month of voting to spare.
The champion midfielder is such a heavy favourite that even the AFL’s head of football Greg Swann has declared he will win it, something you don’t expect to hear from the top brass.
Nick Daicos of the Magpies enters this year’s Brownlow as a $1.01 favourite. AFL Photos via Getty Images
But his declaration might have been premature, because heavy Brownlow favourites don’t always salute, which is the beauty of the award.
You have four umpires busy doing one of the hardest jobs in world sport, officiating Aussie Rules at the top level, who then have to come together after the game and work out who the three best players on the ground were.
This has made the Brownlow incredibly unpredictable over the years. The fact that umpires now have access to stats this year is a new element that also needs to be considered.
Even across the last 20 years, numerous clear Brownlow favourites have shockingly fallen short.
Those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it, they say. Let's go through some history.
Honourable mentions: Lachie Neale comes from the clouds in 2023 and Nathan Fyfe upsets Patrick Dangerfield in 2019.
Matt Rowell stuns Nick Daicos 12 months ago
We have an example from literally last year. Daicos was predicted to win the Brownlow, not by as much as this year, but still entered as the outright No.1 contender.
Coming off a 2024 where he set the record for most votes, only for Carlton captain Patrick Cripps to break it again, many expected 2025 to be the year the Collingwood champion was crowned.
It wasn't to be, thanks to a whacky and wild season of voting from the umpires, who clearly loved what they saw from Gold Coast midfielder Matt Rowell.
Rowell polled in a number of games nobody expected on his way to 39 votes and the win. Daicos finished second, again.
Matt Priddis capitalises on the chaos in 2014
Matt Priddis won the 2014 Brownlow. Getty
The 2014 Brownlow Medal was a case of last man standing.
Gary Ablett Jr was looking set to win by double-digit votes, before a season-ending shoulder injury blew that to smithereens.
Fremantle champion Nat Fyfe, who would ultimately finish second by a single vote, got suspended and suddenly the Brownlow race was wide open.
Geelong's Joel Selwood, Collingwood's Scott Pendlebury and Sydney's Josh Kennedy, three champion midfielders of the 2010s, were viewed as the favourites ahead of the count.
But it would be West Coast midfielder Matt Priddis, who didn't even make the 2014 All-Australian team, who won with 26 votes, from Ablett (who played 15 games) and Lance Franklin on 22.
An outcome not many saw coming, with Priddis a clear outsider in the betting odds coming into the night.
Chris Judd and Dane Swan trade blows
One of the more peculiar situations in recent Brownlow history occurred across 2010 and 2011.
In 2010, Collingwood midfielder Dane Swan was a huge favourite, nearing the levels Daicos will enter as in 2026.
Dane Swan won the 2011 Brownlow Medal. nna\lachlan.harper
But this night belonged to Carlton star Chris Judd, who broke Collingwood hearts by storming over the top of Swan to win the medal. He polled so many three-vote games “C. Judd, three votes” became a part of the football lexicon.
From a betting standpoint, the Carlton midfielder was more of an outsider to win it than Priddis was in 2014.
One year later in 2011, Judd this time entered as the red-hot favourite; And almost as if the footy gods knew they needed a square-up, Swan won as a significant outsider.
They both got the 2010s Brownlow Medal they deserved, just many not in the correct year.
Gary Ablett Jnr gets rolled in back-to-back years
Ablett's entry to Brownlow favouritism actually mirrored Daicos'. In the same way the Collingwood midfielder was expected to win in 2024 and 2025, the Geelong champion was heavy favourite in 2007 and 2008.
The first year, Ablett only managed 20 votes as teammate Jimmy Bartel won with 29. Geelong was so dominant in 2007 and had so many stars that they had a lot of votes shared around.
Geelong coach Mark Thompson with his player and Brownlow Medal winner Jimmy Bartel in 2007. Getty
Then in 2008, Western Bulldogs midfielder Adam Cooney came from the clouds to win with 24 votes, from Brisbane's Simon Black on 23 and Ablett on 22, alongside Richmond's Matthew Richardson.
In hindsight, it's hard to fathom how Ablett finished his career with just the two medals. He was favourite in 2007 and 2008, among the favourites in 2012 and would have won by the length of the Flemington straight in 2014 if not for a shoulder injury.
But after falling short twice here, he went on to get his crowning moment in dominant fashion the very next year in 2009.
History might have something similar in store for Daicos on Monday night.
