Australian lamb prices surge as national flock slumps to 100-year low
Shoppers hoping to add lamb to their weekly dinner rotation continue to be priced out by soaring prices at the supermarket, and there’s no relief in sight this spring.
Supermarket customers are currently paying between $45 and $53 per kilo for lamb cutlets, between $23 and $27 per kilo for loin chops, and between $16 and $22 per kilo for traditional bone-in leg roasts.
Lamb prices remain unseasonably high this spring. Jo Abi
If conditions had been typical of an Australian spring lamb season, these prices would be approximately 20-35 per cent less. A typical ‘good spring’ price cycle should be lamb cutlets for between $28 and $38 per kilo, loin chops for between $15 and $19 per kilo, and traditional bone-in leg roast for between $10 and $14 per kilo.
Lamb stocks fall to 100-year historic lows
Stuart Bull, Market Information Manager at Meat & Livestock Australia, told nine.com.au the current prices are a result of low lamb stocks, which have reached 100-year lows.
Added to this are increased production costs, and export demand from the US and China.
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“Lamb availability is tight because Australia’s sheep flock has contracted after several years of heavy turn-off, drought and poor seasonal conditions in key southern regions,” Bull explained.
“MLA forecasts lamb slaughter to fall more than 10 per cent in 2026 due to fewer lambs available and increased retention of breeding stock to rebuild flocks.”
Lamb prices this spring are a result of supply remaining constrained “despite the spring flush”, with producers “retaining ewe lambs, holding stock to heavier weights and rebuilding flocks”, Bull said.
Customers are currently paying between $45 and $53 per kilo for lamb cutlets. iStock
Lamb stocks on Australian farms have reached 100-year lows. iStock
“At the same time, export demand remains strong.”
Bull said prices may fall slightly: “Some seasonal softening is possible as more new season lambs reach market over late spring and early summer. However, any decline is expected to be limited because overall sheep numbers remain low, flock rebuilding is ongoing and global sheepmeat supplies remain tight.”
If prices fall during the summer months, it won’t be by much. Jo Abi
Australian lamb prices have been well above average for a number of years following periods of drought and resulting stock reduction from which they are yet to recover.
“Lamb prices remain historically strong because supply is tighter than demand and has been for a number of years,” Bull explained.
“While seasonal increases in lamb numbers may ease prices slightly over summer, underlying flock shortages and strong export demand are likely to keep the market well supported.”
‘It feels like you work really hard and not take much home’
Justin Everitt has been a lamb farmer his entire life. Everitt’s farm is called Aintree Park and is in Brocklesby in the Southern Riverina of New South Wales. While his stock levels have increased, they are currently “a bit lower than normal”.
“When the prices were pretty low a couple of years ago, we didn’t go replacing (stock) because the money wasn’t in it,” he told nine.com.au.
He said conditions are now improving, but are not back to pre-drought levels.
“It’s getting back to a market where we’re back to profitable sheep farmers, but there are a lot of costs that are involved at the moment, so it’s that’s really chewing into our margins that we might have,” he said.
Farmer Justin Everitt’s stock levels have increased, but they are currently ‘a bit lower than normal’. iStock
These include higher fuel, input and freight costs, including the cost of running equipment on the farm as well as transport.
“Just anything that’s involved with diesel at the moment is very expensive,” he said. “Everything that’s involved in running farms has gone through the roof.”
The sell price he and other lamb farmers need to make a modest profit is $12 per kilo based on a the weight of a live animal. Current lamb sale prices for farmers is around $10.50 to $11.80, he explained.
“It just feels like you work really hard and not take much home. You got to pay for high replacement stock, and replacement ewes these days are very, very expensive, so that’s chewing into any margins you might have.”
Still, he feels there is “light at the end of the tunnel” with prices higher than they have been for a while.
“We’ll pretty much be producing lambs now until probably February or March next year,” he said.
“We’ve seen lamb selling for $5.50 a kilo couple of years back, where you were losing money. These prices at the moment are just catching us back up from those years when it was really in the doldrums, so that’s probably the worst thing.”
He feels more hopeful now that prices are trending upwards. iStock
Once the animals are sold, that’s when the price of individual cuts are set in butchers and supermarkets.
“I know it’s been getting expensive for consumer. It’s a really tough one because if we’re not getting a decent margin, then it’s not worth us running the sheep,” he said.
“I don’t know where the answer lies. We can’t produce it for much less. It’s probably going to have to come from somewhere in the middle here. Someone’s going to have to take a hit somewhere in the middle.”
