Why a series of cold snaps doesn't rule out a 'warmer winter' for Australia

As millions of Australians shiver through yet another cold snap, with Sydney seeing its coldest day in five years, they could be forgiven for wondering when the "warmer" winter weather is supposed to kick in.

Long-range forecasting from the Bureau of Meteorology - and other international agencies - have forecast the development of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to the west.

US body the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has in fact declared an El Niño has formed early and has a 25 per cent chance to become "supersized".

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These conditions should contrive to bring warmer and drier conditions than normal to Australia's southern regions - the tropical north typically being dry during winter anyway.

However, Australians along the east coast are shivering under a cold snap, with snow falling at Oberon in New South Wales and Canberra recording a morning temperature of -6 degrees.

And in Western Australia and South Australia, widespread rain is expected today and tomorrow, with isolated falls of up to 70mm forecast in Adelaide.

But Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said the apparent contradiction between the long- and short-range weather was in fact no such thing.

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"Our long-term outlooks don't take into account short-term events like this cold snap," she said.

"The outlook is still for a warmer, drier winter."

She said it had been about two degrees warmer than average across most of southern Australia throughout the start of winter.

"The key word is average," she said.

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Climate change is driving extreme weather spikes around the globe, including unseasonal temperatures and rain events.

But the New Scientist recently reported that overall, 2023 could be the hottest year on record, topping the previous high of 2016 - the globe's last El Niño year.

And Minney said it was also important to keep in mind that a "warmer winter" doesn't mean you won't need a jumper.

"It will still resemble what we think of as winter," she said.

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