Fresh snow blankets Aussie ski resorts as El Niño threat looms

A heavy dumping of fresh snow has kick-started the Australian ski season, though meteorologists note that a warmer and drier climate outlook could impact the slopes later on.

While ski resorts relied heavily on snowmaking to build up early coverage, a sudden burst of wintry weather ultimately set up strong conditions for Perisher, Thredbo, Mt Buller, Falls Creek, and Mt Hotham to open their 2026 seasons yesterday.

A timely winter storm delivered between 10cm and 25cm of fresh flakes across major resorts in the Victorian and New South Wales Alps ahead of the King’s Birthday long weekend, with cumulative totals reaching up to 40cm on isolated higher peaks.

Not every resort experienced the same conditions. Higher-altitude areas benefited most from the early snowfall, while snow cams showed patchier cover in lower-lying areas, highlighting how a handful of cold fronts can make a marked difference to Australia’s notoriously unpredictable snow season.

The Bureau of Meteorology reported that widespread snow fell across alpine regions during the week as a series of cold systems passed through southeastern Australia. Strong winds and blizzard conditions hit higher parts of the Snowy Mountains before conditions eased, setting up cold, frosty nights and sunny days across the long weekend.

The promising start comes after a warmer-than-average autumn and fresh signs that an El Niño climate pattern is likely to develop early in winter, creating uncertainty about what the rest of the season has in store.

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While an El Niño increases the chance of warmer and drier conditions across parts of the country, meteorologists say Australia’s snow season is too complex to predict months in advance.

Individual cold fronts and low-pressure systems play the deciding role in determining how much snow falls and how long it lasts, with a single well-timed weather event capable of transforming an entire season.

While the Bureau does not issue standalone seasonal snow depth forecasts – as snowfall depends heavily on short-term, weekly weather systems rather than long-range climate outlooks – their seasonal models do project winter temperature and precipitation trends.

Data show that years with frequent snowfall are generally associated with above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures, though several climate drivers influence the odds.

El Niño years tend to produce lower peak snow depths across alpine regions, but experts say that this does not automatically mean a poor ski season.

Cooler overnight temperatures and reduced rainfall – conditions that can occur during an El Niño – may help preserve the snowpack on the ground and create highly favourable windows for artificial snowmaking.

Latest data confirms that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral for now, though sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to rise sharply toward El Niño thresholds. Climate models indicate the potential event could reach moderate to strong intensity later in the year.

Milder days, lower overall rainfall totals, and reduced natural snow cover are classic traits of El Niño impacts on the high country. But meteorologists caution that no two climate events unfold in the same way, as other regional drivers also influence Australia’s weather.

Sub-zero cold outbreaks that bring heavy snow are still on the cards this winter, despite the wider climate trends. Alpine regions had already recorded early, isolated snow events this year, including brief falls in late March.

As the Bureau revealed, snow can develop whenever freezing air combines with enough moisture, meaning the strength, frequency, and timing of individual cold fronts will dictate how the rest of the 2026 season plays out.