Weather forecast australia cyclone risk for queensland as monsoonal trough slams into state 20220107 p5ydqp.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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Severe storm alert issued for Melbourne with warning it could bring large hail and heavy rainfall

Raffaella Ciccarelli

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A severe storm alert has been issued for Melbourne and its surrounds with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warning the system could bring large hail and heavy rainfall.

"A humid, unstable air mass lies over Victoria, with a low pressure trough moving slowly eastwards across the State today," the BoM writes.

"Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours.

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Locations which may be affected include Geelong, Melbourne, Wonthaggi, Frankston, Bacchus Marsh and Warragul.

Northern Queensland is also bracing for a drenching as a monsoon trough slams into the region bringing heavy rain and raising the risk of a tropical cyclone.

"The state's northern tropics are now preparing for a burst of very wet and potentially dangerous weather," Weatherzone said, explaining the trough is likely to develop over the northern Coral Sea during the next few days.

"(It) may become established over Cape York Peninsula by as early as Friday. If this happens, far north Queensland could see a prolonged spell of heavy rain and thunderstorms capable of delivering several hundred millimetres of rain."

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Forecast accumulated rainfall during the seven days ending on Wednesday, January 12, according to the ECMWF model.

Forecast accumulated rainfall during the seven days ending on Wednesday, January 12, according to the ECMWF model. Weatherzone

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Weatherzone said it's too early to know how the low will develop, but that advanced modelling predicts the low could move to the coastline from early next week.

"At this stage, there is potential for the low to become a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Cape York Peninsula on Sunday or Monday, or over the Gulf of Carpentaria early-to-mid next week," it said.

"However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this forecast at the moment."

Forecast accumulated 24-hour rainfall and mean sea level pressure at 4pm AEST on Monday, January 10, according to the ECMWF model.

Forecast accumulated 24-hour rainfall and mean sea level pressure at 4pm AEST on Monday, January 10, according to the ECMWF model. Weatherzone

Residents in northern Queensland up to Townsville are being urged to keep across weather alerts.

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It comes after ex-tropical cyclone Seth brought a week of wild weather to the nation's east coast.

Moisture from the system is currently feeding down into NSW and Victoria fuelling heavy rain.

Yesterday it warned a "burst" of wet and stormy weather will sweep across south-eastern Australia over several days.

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New South Wales, Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania are in the firing line with severe storms and heavy rain forecast.

Sydney was lashed by an intense storm overnight.

Sydney was lashed by an intense storm early yesterday morning forcing the rescue of several cars. Sydney's west and south western suburbs were the hardest hit.  Today

Record-rainfall has already been felt in parts of Victoria with Weatherzone promising more to come.

"Extremely heavy rain in inland NSW and Victoria overnight could be just a taste of things to come in the next couple of days," it said.

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A number of flood warnings are in place across the two states.

Mt Hotham Airport in the Victorian Alps recorded its highest January rainfall in 45 years yesterday with 108.2 mm falling.

The NSW Snowy Mountains and South Coast also recorded falls in excess of 40mm at several locations.

The wet, humid weather comes after northern NSW and south-east Queensland were battered by a dangerous surf and violent tides at the start of the week.

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Here's what's happening today across the nation's capitals.

Brisbane

It will be wet and warm in Brisbane today, with the Queensland city reaching a high 27C, the BoM said.

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There's a very high chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the late morning and afternoon.

Sydney

Similar conditions will be felt in the Harbour City as temperatures climb to 28C. There's a high chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe.

Winds will tend north-easterly at 30 to 45 km/h.

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Showers and a potential storm is forecast for Sydney today.

Showers and a potential storm is forecast for Sydney today. Brook Mitchell

Melbourne

It will be humid, wet and rainy in Melbourne, which has a high chance of showers.

These are most likely during this afternoon and early evening, BoM said.

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There's also a chance of a thunderstorm, most likely this afternoon with heavy falls possible.

Winds will tend northerly at 20 to 30 km/h before shifting to south to south-westerly at 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

The mercury will reach 29C.

Canberra

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The nation's capital has a very high chance of showers and possibly severe thunderstorms today.

Heavy falls are possible, the BoM warns.

Temperatures will reach 25C.

Hobart

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The BoM warns Hobart could cop a thunderstorm that potentially bears hail, during the afternoon and early evening.

A very high chance of rain is forecast.

Winds will tend north-easterly 25 to 35 km/h before turning east to south-easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Wind will shift southeast to south-westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Temperatures will reach 25C.

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Darwin

Darwin will reach a high of 34C today with a medium chance of showers late this evening and the chance of a thunderstorm with gusty winds.

Winds will tend westerly at 15 to 25 km/h.

Adelaide

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It will be a cloudy day in Adelaide with a high of 27C forecast.

There's a medium chance of showers, but a high chance about the hills and southern suburbs.

Winds will tend south-westerly at 25 to 35 km/h before turning southerly in the evening.

Perth

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It will be very hot and sunny in Perth with the mercury climbing to a high of 38C.

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