Election ‘too close to call’ as One Nation bursts out of heartland

Just over a month out from the Victorian state election, the result is too close to call, as One Nation surges into contention in previously unwinnable seats.

A new poll from Roy Morgan estimated Labor was on track to win 40 seats, compared with 31 for the Coalition, compared to 56 and 28, respectively, at the 2022 state election.

But the biggest shifter was Senator Pauline Hanson’s party, led in Victoria by Warren Pickering, which Roy Morgan found to be on track to snare 11 seats, compared to zero in 2022.

The Greens were estimated to win six seats, up from their current four.

All parties beside Labor are looking at gains, but Roy Morgan’s findings showed One Nation was in contention for wins beyond its traditional regional heartland.

“Unsurprisingly, the strongest concentrations of winnable seats are found across regional and rural Victoria, where the electorate profiles align more closely with the voter segments that have shown growing support for One Nation,” the pollster said in its explainer.

“But the map also highlights that One Nation’s appeal is no longer limited to traditional rural strongholds.

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“A number of outer metropolitan and regional growth areas also display relatively high Winnability Scores, reflecting the party’s increasing support across a broader range of voter segments.“

However, as Roy Morgan conceded, key questions remained in play ahead of the November 28 vote.

Both Labor and the Coalition have repeatedly denied the prospect of forming a coalition with, respectively, the Greens and One Nation ahead of the election, which brings the potential of minority government into play.

Roy Morgan also noted that One Nation might be underestimated in the polls, citing diverse examples such as the Democratic Labor Party in the 1950s, US President Donald Trump’s victory against the numbers in 2016, or last week’s surprisingly strong show by Brazilian right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.

“Of particular importance to the result in this year’s Victorian Election, is the final primary vote on a seat-by-seat basis as well as the preference deals, and more importantly preference flows, in each seat,” Roy Morgan’s explainer said.

“Because preference flows can change dramatically depending on the order of parties eliminated in each seat, the overall winnability score in any given seat can be impacted by the final primary vote result and the given preference flows in that seat.”

If the vote were held today, based on the past six months of polling and voter data gathered, Roy Morgan said it would be “a real cliffhanger”.

One Nation has drawn attention during its campaign in Victoria, with state leader Pickering admitting to drug use and “low-level” drink driving in his 20s.

At the party’s campaign launch earlier this month, upper house candidate Mark Nicholson said he wanted to see former premiers Dan Andrews and Jacinta Allan imprisoned.

The party has committed to cutting Victoria’s suburban rail loop and the state’s treaty with Indigenous Australians.

Its policy document, released alongside its campaign launch, did not include a single costing.