Victoria's bail laws are supposed to be a tough stance on youth crime, here's why it may have the opposite effect

The harsher bail laws implemented by the Victorian government may have a negative impact on halting youth crime, a criminologist claims.

There has been a 17.1 per cent increase in crime in the year to March 31, going from 535,576 criminal offences in March 2024 627,268 in March this year, according to Victoria's latest crime statistics.

Violent crimes such as the stabbing deaths of two teenagers in Melbourne's west earlier this month have shocked the nation and increased pressure on Premier Jacinta Allan.

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Factors such as the cost of living have been a big contributor, according to experts.

The Allan government has responded by introducing a ban on machetes and tightening bail laws within the state, including bringing in a second strike rule that means the bail test for a repeat offender will be higher than it would be for a first-time offender, but some have said the changed bail laws could cause more problems than it solves.

Marietta Martinovic, an Associate Professor in Criminology and Justice studies at RMIT in Melbourne, said keeping more young people in juvenile detention for longer increased the chance of them being stuck in the pattern of repeat criminal behaviour.

"Detention or tougher bail laws don't do anything really positive," she told 9News.com.au.

"What they do is they increase the number of people in custody. We actually expose them to negative influences within these facilities.

"They disrupt proper education and personal development even though there are some educational opportunities within these settings."

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Martinovic said it could increase mental health struggles such as depression and anxiety, and warned that once a young person gets stuck in the system, it can be hard to leave the culture of crime and prison behind.

"Once you process a young person through the system and you put them into custody, the likelihood of them re-engaging in criminal activity is absolutely significant," she said.

She also argued the cost of housing offenders in custody could outweigh potential benefits.

"Detention of a young person is extremely expensive, it's over $300,000 per year per person," she said.

"The worst part is when you detain young people, like what is going to happen as a result of these stringent bail laws, you're [committing] the taxpayer to a very significant tax bill down the track, and I don't think many people are actually thinking about that."

Martinovic said the changes in crime statistics in the were not as concerning as they appeared.

"When we look at statistics we really need to look at much longer-term trends," she said.

"A variation in crime [is] very normal and expected, and we shouldn't change everything in laws, policies [and] practices because of an increase which is [in] one year significant."

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