Mortgage holders 'almost certain' to be kept waiting until Melbourne Cup day for rates relief

Mortgage holders hoping for further relief next week will likely be disappointed, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tipped to keep the cash rate on hold.

That is the unanimous opinion of 32 economists and economic experts canvassed by financial research website Finder.

It was the first time they had all reached total agreement on the outlook for interest rates this year, and was made after a rise in inflation and buoyant consumer spending.

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If they are accurate, the RBA board will keep the cash rate at 3.6 per cent when it wraps up its meeting next Tuesday.

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said the central bank faced a tricky balancing act.

"Mixed economic signals have kept the RBA in a holding pattern," he said.

"While spending remains strong, rising inflation and increasing unemployment add complexity to the decision-making process."

Experts canvassed by Finder said the RBA was seeking a step-by-step reduction in the cash rate.

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"No doubt the RBA is on a slide down with the cash rate. However, the several promised cuts will be spread over quite some time, and we should not expect a cut at every single meeting," Tomasz Wozniak, from the University of Melbourne, said.

However, most of the expert panel have punted on a Melbourne Cup Day rates cut in November.

Seven out of 10 believe the central bank would make the final reduction in the cash rate for this year on November 4, less than an hour after the runners set off in the iconic horse race.

But Cooke said mortgage holders should remain cautious.

"September's increase in monthly inflation from 2.8 per cent to 3 per cent may keep the RBA's scissors in the sheath on Cup Day if the quarterly data follows suit."

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