‘Intense’: Scientists discover concerning ocean map phenomenon
Updated . First published
The El Nino climate pattern forecast over coming months is likely to grow in strength, thanks to exceptionally warm water sitting below the Pacific Ocean surface.
Prolonged above-average sea surface temperatures are one of the big signs of El Nino - which typically brings warmer and drier weather for eastern Australia.
The huge slab of warm water in the Pacific Ocean will make El Nino more intense over coming months. ECMWF / Copernicus
But what is happening deeper in the ocean can also indicate how intense the climate pattern will be over coming months, reports weather channel Weatherzone.
Scientists have now discovered the water is more than 8 degrees above average for this time of year below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean in a region near the equator.
This spike points to the Pacific Ocean becoming warmer over the next few months.
Bureau of Meteorology modelling shows the exceptional sea surface temperature in the ocean will continue to rise from July to October, before reaching a peak between October and December.
This chunk of exceptionally warm water is likely to make El Nino more powerful for the rest of this year and possibly into 2027.
El Nino has the potential to cause drought conditions. James Alcock
How will Australia be impacted
The Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Nino event in June, and warned Australians to expect a warmer, drier winter and spring.
Its latest long-range outlook suggests parts of southern and eastern Australia are likely to receive less rainfall than usual between July and September, while much of the country can expect above-average temperatures.
Below-average rainfall does not mean no rain, and individual weather events such as east coast lows could still bring heavy downpours.
Winter sport enthusiasts are also likely to have a hard time, with less snow forecast signalling a shorter season.
There’s also a strong chance the clearer skies will bring more frosty mornings in winter and early spring frost for south-eastern states.
The changing conditions could spark earlier bushfires and heatwaves, while threatening water storage, farming yields, and snow depths.
Meteorologists also say the strength of the El Nino weather pattern doesn’t always match its impact for Australia.
The last El Nino, in 2023-24, coincided with the nation’s driest August to October period on record but heavy east coast storms and tropical cyclones later delivered widespread summer rain.
As for summer, it’s too early to predict what will be on the cards, but El Nino can increase the risk of hotter days, heatwaves and bushfires in a warming climate.
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