Fears huge offshore system will make 2026 the ‘warmest year on record’
New data suggests that a bolstering El Niño system could make 2026 the warmest year on record.
Studies from Berkley Earth have found that there is a 69 per cent chance that 2026 will become the warmest year ever documented, claiming the crown from 2024.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are far higher than the average. Weatherzone
It found that there is also a 30 per cent chance the year becomes the second-hottest ever, proving that Australia is likely in for a scorching Summer.
The increased odds come after last month was named the second-warmest July worldwide.
The warm month is followed by a rapidly growing El Niño system across the tropical Pacific Ocean, giving more validity to data suggesting it will become the strongest El Niño ever recorded.
Because the system is associated with the warming sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, it typically increases global average temperatures.
Stronger El Niño events have a stronger warming influence on the global climate.
Although the first six months of 2026 ranked as the third-warmest start to a year, this forceful system is expected to push the final annual average into first or second place.
Experts warn that conditions will likely intensify further in 2027.
Because El Niño’s global impact lags its Pacific peak, record-breaking global heat frequently occurs the following year, as seen in 1998, 2016, and 2024.
According to Berkeley Earth, due to El Niño’s global impact lags its Pacific peak, an even larger warming influence – and a strong chance of a further record – is expected in 2027″.
Early spring-like warmth sweeps Australia
Australia might already be starting to feel the effects of the brewing system, with weather data firm Weatherzone warning that a “springlike warmth” is set to envelop large parts of the country to close out Winter.
While frequent showers and onshore winds will delay the warming trend along the east coast, cities like Melbourne and Adelaide are still expected to reach highs of 20°C by Tuesday.
Even Hobart is forecast to approach 20°C, well above its August average of 13.2°C.
A mild air mass combined with cloud cover will also keep overnight minimum temperatures high across much of the nation for the rest of the week.
By reducing rainfall and raising temperatures, El Niño dries out the land early, increasing the risk of dangerous bushfires. State Control Centre via AP
This unseasonal warmth comes after the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) formally declared an El Niño event in June.
In Australia, El Niño typically brings reduced rainfall, higher daytime temperatures, and an increased risk of severe drought and bushfires.
The strength of an El Niño event is measured by sea surface temperature anomalies, essentially how much warmer the top layer of the Pacific Ocean is compared to the long-term average. This is called the Nino 3.4 index.
A “very strong” El Niño event occurs when sea temperatures are two degrees warmer than average; the BOM said in the week ending August 2, the index reached +2.02 degrees, exceeding two degrees for the first time since February 2016.
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