Australia should encourage Cold War-style hotline between China, US to prevent conflict, new report says
Australia should encourage the US and China to set up a Cold War-style "red telephone" hotline to help prevent conflict from accidentally breaking out, according to a new report from an army officer-turned-analyst.
Writing in a research paper on the risk of war in the Indo-Pacific released today by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, William Leben recommended the Australian government should help set up "crisis-management mechanisms" between the two superpowers.
One of the options he discussed was a hotline between the political or military leaders of the nations, similar to the so-called "red telephone" that linked the US and Russia for much of the Cold War.
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Australia should encourage the USA and China to set up a Cold War-style "red telephone" hotline, a report says. AP
While neither red nor a telephone, the hotline was set up in 1963 following the Cuban missile crisis, creating a direct communications line between Washington and Moscow to prevent nuclear war.
Leben noted that while a Beijing-Washington link would be an option to mitigate the risk of war in the Pacific, he noted China has an unreliable record when it comes to maintaining similar communication lines.
"The history of this kind of link between the US and China is, at best, patchy, and theorists have rightly pointed out that such mechanisms can be abused and manipulated," he wrote.
"Chinese leaders have reportedly cut off one such crisis line on at least two occasions, clearly rendering it useless in the very situation for which it's designed.
"Indeed, manipulating ambiguity and opacity through such actions could be understood as a deliberate approach by China's leaders."
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The hotline could help stave off the chance of war in the Indo-Pacific, although the report said China has a patchy history with such policies. AP
The report said war in the Indo-Pacific is a "real possibility", pointing to potential flashpoints in North Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea.
"War in the Indo-Pacific is a real possibility. Increased competition, a growing trust deficit between global and regional powers and potential miscalculations heighten the danger," Leben said.
"There needs to be a more engaged Australian discussion on conflict-escalation risks and how they might be managed."
He also noted the Australian government has already made managing risks in the region a priority, and said the responsibility of preventing conflict extends far beyond our own government.
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The report noted that the Australian government has already made managing risks in the region a priority. Liu Bin/Xinhua via AP
"Australia certainly cannot manage these risks alone, and we shouldn't exaggerate Australian influence over the various factors influencing strategic stability," he said.
"Nonetheless, the potential consequences are so serious that significant regional players, Australia included, cannot be bystanders.
"These are not just issues for the US and China alone. Indeed, there is a history of Australia playing a constructive role in this area."
In addition to setting up communication lines between the US and China, the report called for Australia to bolster crisis-simulation exercises and policy simulation and war games.
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