Putin's fears of coup ramp up amid Russia's backslide in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is dialling up his personal security to unseen levels, amid rising fears of an assassination attempt or a coup, according to a European intelligence report.

The report, leaked to several global media outlets including CNN, paints a picture of rising paranoia in the Kremlin, as the gruelling war in Ukraine takes an ever-greater toll on Russia.

CNN, which published an examination of the report, said it claimed the Kremlin had installed surveillance systems in the homes of aides close to Putin, and also forbidden them to use public transport.

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The changes were in part motivated by the death of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, the head of the operational training directorate of the Russian armed forces' general staff, in a car bomb attack last year.

Russian setback in Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War, a US policy research organisation, has found that Russian forces suffered a "net loss of territorial control" in Ukraine in April this year.

The last time Russia recorded such a loss was in August 2024, when Ukraine launched its audacious counter-attack into the Kursk region.

"The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia's increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult," the ISW said in a post on X.

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"The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain."

In response, ISW refined its own mapping data and etymology to find Russia had gained less territory than was previously apparent.

"These changes have not affected ISW's previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance," the post read.

"Russian (military bloggers) identified problems with the Russian air campaign and assessed that Russian forces may not be able to take advantage of reported increased bombing capabilities."

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How stable is Putin's rule?

The very fact that the report was leaked - by a source "close to" European intelligence, per CNN - is perhaps an indication that its ultimate target is in the Kremlin.

The report says that since March, "(the) Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself have been concerned about potential leaks of sensitive information, as well as the risk of a plot or coup attempt targeting the Russian president.

"He is particularly wary of the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite."

The report even names Sergei Shoigu, a former defence minister and current Secretary of Russia's Security Council, as the boy-most-likely-to, after a former deputy of Shogiu's was arrested for embezzlement, money laundering, and bribery.

The report claimed without evidence that Shoigu retained significant influence among the senior brass of the Russian military.

Putin's travel around Russia has been curtailed as Ukraine displays its success with deep strikes reaching as far as Moscow, while CNN also reported none of his staff were allowed to use phones with an internet connection.

The costs of the Ukraine war are also beginning to bite the previously comfortable Russian middle class, including rising casualties hitting an estimated 30,000 a month in 2026.

Hip pocket costs are also squeezing citizens, along with rolling internet outages throughout the country.

But in the end, as CNN notes, some of the details and motivations in the report remain hard to confirm, while Europe has interest in drumming up division in the Russian government.

The latter is especially true now, as the US withdraws troops from Germany, and White House support Ukraine is weak.

With CNN.

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