Experts say hiking rates today would be a 'mistake' and claim Australia may already be in a recession

Experts say raising interest rates again today could plunge Australia into a recession - if it is not already in one.

"If the RBA does raise interest rates... this it would most likely plunge Australia into a 'recession we don't have to have' – if we aren't already in one," an article published by market research firm Roy Morgan says.

Penned by Roy Morgan chairman Gary Morgan, CEO Michele Levine and marketing boss Julian McCrann it says the highly anticipated move would be "a mistake".

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its board meeting at 2.30pm and is expected to lift rates by 0.25 per cent to 4.35 per cent, with many economists forecasting it will go up again this year.

In March, mortgage holders were slapped with yet another rate rise.

It was the third in a row after a brief period of reprieve for homeowners.

The article also claims "businesses are increasingly concerned about the state of the economy," and "Australian consumers are even more pessimistic."

"The Reserve Bank SHOULD NOT make a historic mistake tomorrow and raise interest rates again for a third straight month that will force Australia into the 'recession we don't have to have," it said.

The article notes the latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence for April shows the index crashing 14.2 points in April to a record low of only 76.5.

That's below the previous record low reached at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

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Plus the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is at only 67.8 – over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

This is the seventh-lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all-time, it says.

"A further increase to official interest rates, tomorrow, on top of two interest rate increases by the RBA already in February and March – by a total of 0.5 per cent to 4.1 per cent - will increase mortgage stress, real unemployment and under-employment and ensure the damage to the Australian economy is needlessly increased and a likely deep recession guaranteed," it says.

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Meanwhile an interest rate hike this week would put 100,000 mortgage holders on the brink of defaulting, research shows.

A survey by comparison site Finder shows one in 10 mortgage holders (297,000 mortgagors) would be unable to repay their home loan if they were hit by one or two more increases.

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