'Ice Queen' Elena Rybakina freezes out Aryna Sabalenka to banish ghosts of 2023

All hail the new 'Ice Queen' of Melbourne Park.

On Saturday night, Elena Rybakina claimed her maiden Australian Open title with a clinical performance, dealing Aryna Sabalenka a second consecutive heartbreak

Cutting a characteristically reserved figure — even in the heat of a grand slam final — Rybakina was the embodiment of calm at match point, and later hoisted the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup with the same quiet grace that defined her comeback on court.

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"I think this win was almost inevitable. She is the Ice Queen," Australian tennis great Alicia Molik said in commentary for Nine.

"She was incredible in all of the big moments and continued to play big.

"A tough loss for Sabalenka, but you know, beaten no question by the better player today who brought the momentum in."

Sealing the championship with an ace, Rybakina defeated Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in two hours and 18 minutes.

Despite Sabalenka racing to a 3-0 lead in the deciding set, Rybakina remained ice-cold under pressure, storming back to win five straight games and turn the match around.

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Asked post-match about her memories of the 2023 Australian Open final — which shared eerie similarities to this decider — Rybakina reflected on how far she has come.

That night, Rybakina, then the No.22 seed, clinched the first set 6-4 before Sabalenka rallied to win the next two and seal a stunning come-from-behind victory.

While the pair had met 10 times since then, with Rybakina holding a 6-4 edge in those encounters, it was her recent 6-3, 7-6(0) victory at the 2025 WTA Finals that set the tone for this victory.

"Of course, I remember that match, but mostly I was watching the matches played recently with Aryna," Rybakina told Nine post-match with a smile.

"I think this time I stayed stronger. I kept on going, and I served well at the end of the match. I'm super happy."

With this win, Rybakina is projected to return to her career-high ranking of world No.3.

* The following is AI-generated 'What If' analysis that examines the most pivotal points in the match. It was provided courtesy of Infosys

The 2023 mirror image: How Sabalenka's own script was used against her 

What if Aryna Sabalenka had steadied her forehand at 30-40 in the 7th game of the deciding set?

The ball floated there, suspended in the Melbourne twilight like an invitation to glory, and Sabalenka had done everything right — her second serve had pushed Rybakina to defend, her cross-court backhands had pinned the Kazakh at the baseline, and the point was hers for the taking. Instead, her forehand betrayed her at the cruelest possible moment, sailing straight into the net as the Rod Laver Arena crowd gasped in collective disbelief. That single misfired shot transformed what should have been deuce into a devastating break, handing Rybakina a 4-3 lead and igniting a fire that would ultimately crown a new Australian Open champion. The butterfly effect was merciless: had Sabalenka found the court, she might have held for 4-3, arrested the bleeding, and reminded everyone that her blistering 3- 0 start to the set wasn't ancient history but a warning still echoing through the stadium. 

The tragedy of Sabalenka's defeat lies not in being outplayed, but in being so agonizingly close to rewriting the script entirely. She had stormed through the opening set's loss, answered Rybakina's challenge by seizing the second set 6-4 in a display of raw power tennis, and then raced to a 3-0 lead in the decider that seemed to signal inevitable coronation. Yet tennis rewards neither momentum nor moral victories — only points won when they matter most. Sabalenka converted just two of eight break point opportunities while Rybakina's clinical 50 per cent conversion rate told the story of a champion who struck when the iron was hottest. The physical toll was evident in every sprint, every desperate lunge, but it was the psychological weight of those unconverted chances that ultimately crushed her dreams. 

What haunts this final isn't the scoreline but the proximity of an alternate universe where Sabalenka lifts the trophy. At 5-4 in the third, where Rybakina is serving for championship at 30-30, she watched helplessly as Rybakina's 188 km/h thunderbolt down the T screamed past her and another ace at 30-40, one serve she couldn't read, one moment she couldn't control, one title that slipped through her fingers like sand.

The revenge from a couple of years ago: thirty games played, fourteen deciding points contested, and a championship decided by margins so fine they could be measured in heartbeats. Sabalenka will return to this court, will chase this dream again, but she will forever wonder what might have been if that forehand at 30-40 had went through the net instead of sailing into it.