History does not repeat: Underdog Elena Rybakina completes incredible comeback to claim Australian Open crown

Sitting 3-0 down in the third set against Aryna Sabalenka in the Australian Open women's final, Elena Rybakina was likely having flashbacks to 2023's defeat.

But not this time. Instead, she flipped the script on its head, winning five straight games en route to claiming her maiden Australian Open title 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

From the jaws of likely defeat, the Kazakh star proved her growth from 2023 in a true underdog story.

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For Sabalenka, it makes two straight Australian Open finals defeats, turning what could have been four straight titles into two, and two missed opportunities.

Rybakina's only other grand slam win came in 2022 at Wimbledon.

Due to the rain in Melbourne, the roof was shut for the entire game, setting up a tantalising prospect for two of the biggest hitters in women's tennis.

Rybakina struck immediately in the first set, breaking Sabalenka and catching the two-time Aus Open champion off guard.

"Quietly intimidating start from Rybakina," Sam Smith told Nine on commentary.

Things evened up from there, with both powerful hitters dominating whenever they landed a first serve.

But it was Rybakina in control early and Sabalenka only had fleeting looks at a chance to break back.

"A lot of frustration on the Sabalenka side. For me that's because she can't dictate. She can't dominate like she's used to. She's actually getting pushed back and it's not being played on her terms. She doesn't like that," Dokic said late in the first set.

Rybakina would take the early advantage in clinical fashion, 6-4, as Sabalenka's frustrations were clear.

The second set remained just as even. The world No.1 had chances to break, including an 11-minute match early on, but we remained firmly on serve.

Rybakina was only landing 50 per cent of her first serves, but didn't look like losing a point when they landed.

But the same applied to Sabalenka, leading to a fairly ho-hum run of games across the latter half of the first set and the majority of the second.

But it was the No.1 seed who pounced on the first real opportunity, which came at 5-4, breaking Rybakina and pinching the second set almost out of nowhere.

"What a way to find a way back into this final," Smith said.

The champion took a set that was likely heading towards a tiebreaker and instead busted the match wide open.

"It has been all about mentality for Sabalenka, why she's now winning grand slams and have a look at this match," Dokic said.

"She would have self-destructed two or three years ago and lost this in two sets. Now here she is. Look at the composure, and we can see her right here from the bunker. And she's in the third set here. She still has a chance. It is all about mentality."

Rybakina didn't get a look at a break point in the second set, and in fact, hadn't had one since taking that 1-0 lead at the start of the first.

And the balance of power was clearly shifting towards Sabalenka, who pounced immediately in the third set to break serve and lead 2-0.

Rybakina's early momentum was now completely gone and the the No.1 seed flipped all pressure in her direction.

But the Kazakh rose to the challenge, forcing her first break point opportunity since the opening game of the first set in the very next game.

She wasn't able to immediately capitalise, but did so one service game later, breaking the Belarusian and shifting the balance once more, after being 3-0 down.

"The former Wimbledon champion is showing her mettle here. We are back on serve in this scintillating final set," Smith said.

And from the jaws of defeat, Rybakina struck again out of nowhere, breaking Sabalenka again, and winning her fourth straight game in the third set. Then her fifth.

"We didn't see this change in momentum happening," Alicia Molik said on commentary.

Smith added: "This is starting to unravel mentally (for Sabalenka)".

The four-time grand slam champion held serve, forcing Rybakina to serve for the championship; the ultimate test of her resolve.

And she would have certainly been nervous, sitting 0-15 down as the crowd roared.

But two powerful winners gave her the advantage back, almost mirroring the early stages of the third set.

A pair of aces later, and she was champion.

A fist pump and a smile was all we got. No theatrics, no falling to the floor, no tears. She jogged over to her coaches and gave them a hug. You'd think she'd won the first set.

"In the end it was a spectacular comeback from 3-0 down to become the champion of Australia," Smith said.

Sabalenka meanwhile sat on the bench, with a towel over her head.

"Once again (Sabalenka's) back where she was 12 months ago. She needs to look at her emotional state. Rybakina had phenomenal emotional composure. You do have to feel for her," Dokic said.

Alicia Molik added: "Rybakina snatched it away from her. A tough loss for her, but beaten by the better player today".

"I think this is scary, because I think it's going to be the catalyst for a lot more dominance for Rybakina. This is going to be tough to recover from mentally for Sabalenka.

"The power, she found it when she needed it in the third set, but her composure, that was a champion's mentality. Incredible."

Rybakina was handed the trophy, once again, cool as ice, offering a reserved smile.

"Hard to find the words now, but of course I want to congratulate Aryna on incredible results and I hope we play many more finals," Rybakina said.

"Thank you so much to Kazakhstan, I felt the support from that corner a lot and thank you everyone who made this tournament possible."