Maloney: Wild stat raises stakes for top two Aussie teams as Christchurch puts end to rival code jealousy

Before we look ahead to the season-defining importance of the Queensland Reds vs ACT Brumbies clash, a quick circle back to last weekend's Super Round in Christchurch.

I've watched on in admiration as both the NRL and AFL elevated their respective marquee rounds these last few years but Super Rugby has finally got it right and now have an event and city that can match their rival codes' offerings.

Christchurch is the perfect destination and now, with a world class enclosed stadium completing the picture, it should be offered hosting rights for as long as it wants.

Watch the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season with every match streaming live and on demand on the home of rugby, Stan Sport

Every pub, restaurant and pre-game meeting spot is only a couple of Dan Carter punts away from the ground.

The vibe on the streets was awesome too. Every fan was grinning ear to ear all weekend long and every team, coach and player bought in massively. Everywhere you turned there was a superstar of today or legend of the past taking it in.

Over 4000 Aussies made the trip to watch their teams play and they complemented the on-field action with all sorts of fun around town.

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Visitors were out golfing at Christchurch and Clearwater Resort, trout fishing on nearby but remote rivers and spending time at their internationally renowned wineries.

I bumped into a huge group of travelling Waratahs fans at Sumner Beach, which is only 15 minutes from the stadium.

Locals there surf while staring back at the snow covered mountain range that surrounds the northern part of the region - it really is stunning.

Super Round in Christchurch in 2027 is an absolute must-do.

Now to the business of 2026 and a match which likely determines both the Reds and Brumbies' title hopes.

It's unfortunate we're already here with a month to go in the regular season but as the 'very stable genius' in charge of the USA often says, 'it is what it is.' Here's how things are shaping up on the run to the finals for the two big Aussie hopes.

HOST OR HELL ON THE ROAD

We say it every season and nothing's changed.

Statistically speaking, it's almost impossible to win a Super Rugby title from outside the top three.

The 14-time championship winning Crusaders did it in 1999 while the Highlanders rolled the Waratahs in Sydney on their way to downing the Hurricanes in Wellington for the trophy in 2015.

It's a wild stat, only twice in 29 years of Super Rugby.

Currently, the Blues occupy third position on 33 points while the Brumbies (fifth) sit on 25 and the Reds (sixth) on 23.

The Blues have a brutal run home with a bye in the final round so they're there to be caught if the Reds or Brumbies can rocket to the finals.

FORM GUIDE

QLD REDS

Les Kiss' men turned in one of their besrt performances of the year last week in Christchurch despite going down in 'super point' to the Blues.

Previous to that they beat the Crusaders but were inexplicably hammered by the Western Force at Suncorp Stadium. They can go on a tear of wins as shown when claiming four straight victories between rounds 3-6.

The squad is set to welcome back a number of top line players including Carter Gordon, Tate McDermott and Tom Lynagh, all hopefully ready to return from injury for the closing stages.

ACT BRUMBIES

Stephen Larkham's squad could not have been more impressive through the early stages of the season.

They belted the Crusaders in Christchurch for the first time in over 20 years and were tremendous beating the Chiefs and Blues down in Canberra. Unfortunately for the Brums, it's been a rough trot since.

They've dropped three of their last four matches including a shock loss to the Fijian Drua in the capital, the visitors' first ever W in Canberra. Charlie Cale is racing to return from injury for the back end of the regular season while Allan Alaalatoa should be back next week.

THE RUN HOME

QLD REDS: BRUMBIES (H), CHIEFS (H), FORCE (A), MOANA PASIFIKA (A), FIJIAN DRUA (H)

ACT BRUMBIES: REDS (A), FORCE (H), BYE, WARATAHS (A), MOANA PASIFIKA (H)

THE SUNCORP SHOWDOWN

Saturday night's battle in Brisbane carries added pressure for the Brumbies with only three games remaining in the season.

They've already met once this year with the Reds scoring two tries inside the final three minutes to stun the Brumbies in Canberra.

Previous to that, the men from down south had won five straight against Queensland.

A little light rain is forecast for Suncorp which may bring the set piece into sharper focus. Both sides are stacked with Wallabies and the match-ups are tasty everywhere.

At lock, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto vs Nick Frost and the hookers, Matt Faessler vs Lachlan Lonergan, should be firey encounters.

Out wide, Corey Toole vs the in-form Tim Ryan, and Tom Wright up against Jock Campbell, all set up beautifully.

KEY PLAYERS

COREY TOOLE (BRUMBIES #11)

Has never lost a game to QLD and is currently Stephen Larkham's most dangerous player

Leads his side for carry metres, line breaks and defenders beaten.

Turned in a huge performance agains the Reds in his last game against them, scoring a try and setting up another.

TIM RYAN (REDS #11)

Has enjoyed an enormous year and troubled the Blues often last week.

His put down to help take the game to extra time was as good a finish as we've seen all year.

Is equal-second top try-scorer for Aussie backs in 2026 and has scored 11 tries in 16 games at Suncorp Stadium.

KEY STATS

QLD have won 20 of their last 25 home derby games at Suncorp Stadium.

Ten of the last 15 games between these sides has been decided by six points or less.

The Brumbies have won their last three starts at Suncorp.

ALGORITHM SAYS

The algorithm favours QLD by 4.5 points and is expecting a mid to high point-scoring game with the under/over set at 54.5.

Queensland Reds v ACT Brumbies

SAT 2 MAY: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (7.35pm kickoff AEST)

REDS (1-15): Aidan Ross, Matt Faessler, Zane Nonggorr, Seru Uru, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Joe Brial, Fraser McReight (c), Harry Wilson, Kalani Thomas, Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, Tim Ryan, Hunter Paisami, Josh Flook, Filipo Daugunu, Jock Campbell

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Nick Bloomfield, Hamish Muller, Vaiuta Latu, Louis Werchon, Ben Volavola, Treyvon Pritchard

BRUMBIES (1-15): James Slipper, Lachlan Lonergan, Rhys van Nek, Nick Frost, Lachlan Shaw, Rob Valetini, Rory Scott, Toby Macpherson, Ryan Lonergan (c), Declan Meredith, Corey Toole, David Feliuai, Kadin Pritchard, Andy Muirhead, Tom Wright

Replacements: Liam Bowron, Blake Schoupp, Darcy Breen, Cadeyrn Neville, Luke Reimer, Klayton Thorn, Tane Edmed, Ollie Sapsford

Referee: Ben O'Keeffe

Assistant referees: Todd Petrie, Warwick Lahmert

TMO: Richard Kelly