Bullseye painted on Wallabies as shiny new comp explained

South Africa and France lead their respective hemispheres and are on track to meet in the inaugural Nations Championship final at Twickenham this month.

Or maybe not.

There’s enough potential challenges over the next three weekends - including a match between the Springboks and Tricolours in Paris next week - to give the championship a twist or two, culminating in six playoff matches.

After the south hosted the first legs in July, it is the north’s turn this month.

The Six Nations sides have restocked with the likes of Antoine Dupont, Sione Tuipulotu, Maro Itoje and Andrew Porter but are vulnerable to rust this weekend having not played for three months.

Meanwhile, the southern sides arrive battle-hardened from a pile of Test matches but bruised and depleted of stars such as Ardie Savea, Cheslin Kolbe, and Santiago Carreras.

Six Nations holder France tops the north and remains the favourite to reach the November 30 (AEDT) final but right on their heels are Scotland, England and Ireland.

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They all have 2-1 win-loss records.

The world champion Springboks and New Zealand are the only unbeaten teams.

But as both are in the southern pool only one can make the final.

South Africa lead on points difference.

The backdrop to the championship is the Rugby World Cup in Australia in 11 months, and teams' determination to also lay down markers for that.

Here’s where each team is at.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

South Africa 3-0 (vs Italy, France, Ireland)

On paper, the Boks have a harder road to the final than the All Blacks.

But they won’t be concerned, not after playing New Zealand on four consecutive weekends and winning 3-1 in the Greatest Rivalry series.

Also, a year ago, the Boks beat France in Paris with 14 men and humiliated Ireland’s pack of Lions in Dublin.

This month is about reminding who is No.1.

New Zealand 3-0 (vs Scotland, Wales, England)

The same fixtures were a minefield a year ago: the All Blacks needed a wonder try by Damian McKenzie to beat Scotland and lost to England from 12-0 up.

Coach Scott Robertson was sacked.

Replacement Dave Rennie has energised the players and supporters and is looking for more progress.

McKenzie’s second coming at flyhalf has meant the injured Ruben Love hasn’t been missed.

Australia 1-2 (vs England, Scotland, Wales)

Conceding 93 points too easily to New Zealand in the Bledisloe Cup last month brought the Wallabies back to earth and painted a bigger bullseye on next year’s Rugby World Cup host.

The good news is the return of 10s Carter Gordon and Ben Donaldson.

Kurtley Beale, out of the blue, is tagged as a backup to star inside centre Len Ikitau.

Beale’s 95th and last Test was in 2021.

Argentina 1-2 (vs Ireland, Italy, France)

The Pumas have won just one Test in six this year, unable to pick their best and plagued by ill-discipline.

But a squad much closer to full strength with Juan Cruz Mallía and Juan Martín González back will benefit from a five-week camp with new assistants Shaun Edwards (defence) and Mario Ledesma (scrum), both issues for Argentina.

Their schedule starts in Dublin, where they have never beaten Ireland.

Japan 1-2 (vs Wales, England, Scotland)

After beating Italy in July, Japan topped Fiji to win the Pacific Nations Cup for the first time since 2019 but then lost to Fiji in the centenary match two weeks ago.

The flyhalf depth is being tested: Lee Seung-sin remains injured, and Ryunosuke Ito has been recalled to university leaving uncapped Riku Kitahara to dictate proceedings against Wales on Sunday (AEDT) with backup from three-cap Shinya Komura.

Fiji 0-3 (vs France, Ireland, Italy)

Jake White, South Africa’s 2007 World Cup-winning coach, beat 30 other applicants for the Fiji job last month.

He plans to relocate to Fiji.

He won his first match against Japan in Tokyo.

White is focused on keeping things simple and building trust.

His net has caught former England No.8 Nathan Hughes, who last played a Test in 2019.

As always, Fiji’s talent overflows; it’s getting it to gel.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

France 2-1 (vs Fiji, South Africa, Argentina)

The French have been brilliant but with a brittle defence.

Injuries have robbed them of key men Thomas Ramos, Julien Marchand, Thibaud Flament and Emmanuel Meafou but the biggest hole is at tighthead prop, where Sipili Falatea, the uncle of midfielder Yoram Moefana, is the sixth pick this year.

Falatea was recalled in July for the first time since the 2023 World Cup.

After Fiji this weekend come the Springboks, whom France have not beaten in Paris in 25 years.

Scotland 2-1 (vs New Zealand, Australia, Japan)

Based on near-misses against New Zealand a year ago and South Africa in July, Scotland has high hopes of ending its 121-year wait for a first win over the All Blacks.

But, as always, the Scots have to improve their staying power and hold their nerve.

A good start would also help after letting New Zealand get away to 14-0 in 2022 and 17-0 last year.

England 2-1 (vs Australia, Japan, New Zealand)

Embattled coach Steve Borthwick has received full backing from his bosses that he’ll stay even if results continue to roller coaster.

England has won three out of eight this year.

Borthwick’s biggest work on is discipline; England has been the worst this year with 14 yellow cards, twice as many as next-worst Wales.

Borthwick needs a fit Fin Smith to run the show that would look different if George Ford or Marcus Smith have the reins.

Ireland 2-1 (vs Argentina, Fiji, South Africa)

If results follow history, Ireland could be playing for a place in the final when the Springboks roll into town.

But so, too, will the Boks be, to spike a rivalry that has turned tetchy.

Coach Andy Farrell gave good reasons for benching Jamison Gibson-Park and Josh van der Flier for the Argentina match on Saturday (AEDT), and he’ll be happy that flyhalf Sam Prendergast has been turning heads after a wrist injury.

Wales 1-2 (vs Japan, New Zealand, Australia)

There’s guarded optimism in Wales that it is moving in the right direction, though in no shape to challenge the All Blacks or Wallabies yet.

The English-based forwards plus Tomos Williams are in form and Max Llewellyn and Eddie James have been paired to overpower Japan in midfield on Sunday (AEDT).

Former referee Ben Whitehouse has been hired to address discipline issues, but that’s a byproduct of the pressure Wales comes under.

Italy 0-3 (vs South Africa, Argentina, Fiji)

Italy has been affected by injuries to centres Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex plus key loose forwards Sebastian Negri and captain Michele Lamaro.

In explaining why regulars Danilo Fischetti, Ross Vintcent and Manuel Zuliani are in the reserves, coach Gonzalo Quesada says they considered workload, recent injuries and the need to pick players they believe can go 80 minutes.

Quesada says flyhalf Domingo Miotti, who last played for Argentina in 2022 and was eligible for Italy on heritage, was unavailable for at least the first two matches.

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