Grand final tips: Brad Fittler says Storm wingers will starve due to star forward's absence
Updated . First published
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The absence of Nelson Asofa-Solomona for Sunday's grand final has been a huge talking point this week and Brad Fittler is expecting it to hurt the Storm in a surprising area.
While most see the star's suspension as an advantage to Penrith's middle forwards, with the jobs of dominant front-rowers James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota becoming easier, Fittler looks to the flanks to identify the true edge.
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The Panthers have for several seasons now confounded experts by fielding two of the shortest wingers in the competition, yet conceding the least amount of tries from kicks. This season they've conceded just 12 tries off kicks all year, making them the stingiest side in the competition in that area.
Sunia Turuva is a pint size winger compared with the modern prototype. Getty
The science that allows for that formula, says Fittler, is the squeeze the Panthers put on their opponents in the middle of the field, ensuring they're rarely in good enough field position to make attacking kicks to the aerial specialists out wide effective.
And there are few better wingers in the air than Storm duo Will Warbrick and Xavier Coates.
"The one where they miss Nelson is competing for kicks," Fittler told Wide World of Sports' Freddy and the Eighth.
"Will Warbrick competing for kicks. Without Nelson you don't get as far up the field. A lot of their good stuff is off the back of one of his big runs, he drags so many defenders in.
"A lot of their stuff is done off that, and therefore you're further down the field. Will Warbrick's been lethal, he'll be up against (Sunia) Turuva and he'll get over him quite easily, it's just a matter of whether or not they can get far enough down the field.
"Penrith are so good at keeping you down your end."
When opposition teams face the Storm, one of the names circled on the whiteboard is Asofa-Solomona due to his ability to fight through tackles and get offloads away to the likes of Harry Grant, Cameron Munster or Jahrome Hughes - all lethal in broken field.
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Nelson Asofa-Solomona walks off after he was sin binned. Getty
When those options are shut down he still more often than not pokes his nose through and fights to his front, allowing for a quick play the ball and easy metres on the next tackle.
In either scenario the opposition must commit three and four defenders to the tackle, opening space on the edges for the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen to make hay. Without the Nelson effect, the Panthers' defensive line can keep its shape and the Storm will almost certainly find it more difficult to get into the opposition's 30 for plays five and six, which is where kicks for a flying Coates or Warbrick become lethal.
While conceding to Fittler's point, Andrew Johns is adamant the wily Craig Bellamy will find a way to get to the Panthers' edges often enough to create tryscoring opportunities.
And when they're up there, the smarts of Munster and Hughes will give Coates and Warbrick their chance.
Winger Will Warbrick celebrates a try during the Storm's round 16 match against the Dolphins. Getty
"If I was kicking for Melbourne, if they got down there, I'd be working the play right to the opposite sideline because when you work to that sideline the gaps out (the opposite side) are bigger and then whoosh, big 40 metre kick to Warbrick or Xavier Coates," Johns said.
The five key words in that sentence from Johns are "if they got down there". That game of cat and mouse between two fine coaches and two extraordinary teams could be the determining factor in who lifts thew trophy on Sunday.
Scroll below for the grand final tips by all Nine's expert tipsters!
Nine's NRL tipping leaderboard. Nine
Tip (margin), Clive Churchill Medal winner prediction
Andrew Johns: Storm (8), Cameron Munster
Brad Fittler: Panthers (6), Isaah Yeo
Billy Slater: Storm (8), Eli Katoa
Ruan Sims: Panthers (6), Isaah Yeo
Paul Gallen: Penrith (1), Nathan Cleary
Darren Lockyer: Storm (12), Jahrome Hughes
Allana Ferguson: Penrith (7), Isaah Yeo
Danika Mason: Storm (6), Cameron Munster
Wally Lewis: Storm (2), Jahrome Hughes
Mat Thompson: Penrith (7), Nathan Cleary
Peter Psaltis: Storm (1), Eli Katoa
David Middleton: Panthers (7), Jarome Luai
Michael Chammas: Panthers (8), Jarome Luai
The Mole: Storm (7), Jahrome Hughes
Ben Glover: Panthers (2), Nathan Cleary
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