State of Origin III tips: Nine experts predict their match winners

NSW will need to dominate the opening phase of the match if they're to secure consecutive Origin series wins over Queensland according to rugby league immortal Andrew Johns.

NSW have only won four of 15 Origin deciders with the past seven Origins at ANZ Stadium having been decided by four points or fewer.

Mystery still surrounds Queensland's line-up after assistant Justin Hodges refused to confirm their starting side for Wednesday night's decider in Sydney.

Teenager David Fifita has been tipped to be promoted to the starting back row with interchange utility Moses Mbye swapping with centre Michael Morgan and Ethan Lowe to make his debut off the bench.

Even though NSW let an early lead slip in game one, Johns still believes dominance in the opening exchanges will be key to victory.

The Blues have "pockets of attack all over the field" and the Blues great expects the Maroons to struggle to contain the home side, especially around the middle.

"There's areas where they can be vulnerable. If they get the start right and build pressure I think they can be vulnerable around the ruck," he said.

"I think the side of the field where they have Corey Norman, he might be lining up with Moses MBye, who's only played a couple of games at centre. But it all comes down to the start."

Johns tips the Blues by 10 points, however, the victory depends heavily on replicating the effort from game 2.

"If they build pressure like they did in the second game and focus in on those effort areas they'll get it right."

EXPERT TIPS

The Mole

NSW by 13

MoM: Mitchell Pearce

Mat

NSW by 10

MoM: Tom Trbojevic

Locky

QLD by 4

MoM: Cameron Munster

Wally

QLD by 1

Sterlo

NSW by 16

MoM: James Tedesco

Joey

NSW by 10

MoM: James Tedesco

Gus

NSW by 1

MoM: James Tedesco

Freddy

NSW

MoM: Damien Cook